[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Mon Oct 29 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Oscar centered near 26.5N 58.5W at 2100 UTC, moving N
at 6 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb.
Maximum sustained winds are 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is within are within 30 nm of the
center. Scattered moderate to strong convection in bands within
200 nm east of the center. Oscar is forecast to accelerate north-
northeastward on Tuesday ahead of a large mid-latitude trough,
then move rapidly across the northern central Atlantic. PUBLIC
ADVISORIES for OSCAR are available via the WMO header WTNT31
KNHC and the AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. FORECAST/ADVISORIES for
OSCAR are available via the WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and the AWIPS
header MIATCMAT1.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 35W from
01N to 11N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are within 60 nm on either side of the
axis from 03N to 11N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 54W S of
14N, moving westward at 10 kt. Isolated showers are in the
vicinity of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W to 07N18W. The ITCZ continues from 07N18W to 06N34W,
then resumes from 05N36W to 06N49W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is within 300 nm north of the ITCZ between 21W and
31W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1022 mb high is centered over the north central Gulf of Mexico
near 27N92W. Overcast multilayered clouds are over the Bay of
Campeche S of 24N between 90W-97W. Mostly fair weather is over
the rest of the Gulf. Mostly zonal flow is noted at upper levels.

High pressure will gradually shift into the SE U.S. and maintain
benign marine weather through Tue. Winds and seas will increase
across the Gulf on Wed as a cold front moves off the Texas coast
Wed night. The front will reach from near Panama City Florida to
Tuxpan Mexico Thu night, and from Tampa Florida to NW Yucatan by
Fri night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from central Cuba near 22N77W to the
Yucatan Channel near 20N87W to the Yucatan Peninsula near 18N92W.
Scattered moderate convection is over the NW Caribbean 19N to
near the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula between 86W-87W. Further
South, a cluster of scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection are over the SW Caribbean S of 15N to include
Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, and near the coast of NW
Colombia. Elsewhere, trade winds with passing showers are across
the remainder of the Caribbean.

The stationary front will weaken overnight. Moderate to locally
fresh NE trades will persist over the western Caribbean through
Tue. Expect a return to fresh to strong trades from the tropical
N Atlc to the central Caribbean waters through late week as high
pressure builds into the western Atlantic.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 32N66W to 24N70W to eastern
Cuba. Scattered showers are within 90 nm SE of the front.

A broad upper level trough over the W Atlantic N of 24N and W of
68W supports the frontal system. An upper level low is centered
over the central Atlantic near 23N51W. Upper level diffluence
east of the low is producing scattered moderate convection from
18N-23N between 45W-51W.

A second cold front will move off northeast Florida tonight,
reach from Bermuda to South Florida Tue, then stall and weaken
from 22N65W to the Windward Passage on Wed before dissipating
late in the week. Swell associated with Hurricane Oscar well
east of the area will impact the area east of 70W and north of
22N early through Wed.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ Mundell
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