[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 112039
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152018
500 PM AST Thu Oct 11 2018

Nadine continues to be strongly sheared. A brief burst of deep
convection occurred near the center of the cyclone a few hours ago,
but the center has since become exposed once again. The initial
intensity has been decreased to 45 kt based primary on the latest
TAFB and SAB Dvorak fixes. Additional weakening is likely over the
next day or so while Nadine remains strongly sheared. The regional
and global models now show Nadine degenerating into a trough of low
pressure within 48 h, and this is reflected in the new NHC forecast.

The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward with an initial
speed of 7 kt. The models are in good agreement that Nadine will
continue on a similar heading and speed for the next 24 h or so,
before turning toward the west as it weakens. The NHC forecast has
been nudged to the southwest at most forecast points, and is
generally near the HFIP Corrected Consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/2100Z 14.5N  34.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  12/0600Z 14.9N  36.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  12/1800Z 15.5N  37.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  13/0600Z 15.7N  40.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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