[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 111449
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Michael Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018
1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

Surface, radar, and satellite data indicate that the center of
Michael has moved over central South Carolina this morning, and will
be moving into central North Carolina shortly.  Sustained winds near
the center have decreased, but there have been a couple of reports
of sustained 37 to 40 kt winds along and just off the coast of South
Carolina within the outer circulation of the storm.  It is assumed
that these coastal observing sites have not sampled the strongest
winds, so the initial intensity remains 45 kt for this advisory.
Wind gusts of 40 to 50 kt have been common over central and eastern
portions of South Carolina this morning.  As Michael's circulation
emerges over the western Atlantic, little change in strength is
expected today, with the highest sustained winds spreading northward
along the coasts of South and North Carolina.  Late tonight, Michael
will quickly transform into an extratropical cyclone, and the global
models indicate that the post-tropical low will quickly strengthen
after moving offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast.  The post-tropical
portion of Michael's intensity forecast is based on guidance from
the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

The storm is moving quickly northeastward or 050 degrees at 20 kt.
Michael will continue to accelerate northeastward to east-
northeastward as it moves over the western and north Atlantic
during the next couple of days.  There has been little change to
the guidance envelope, and the new NHC track is an update of the
previous advisory.

Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of the
Mid-Atlantic coast as Michael exits the U.S. east coast and becomes
post-tropical. Non-tropical high wind watches, warnings, and
advisories have been issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards in
these areas north of Duck, North Carolina.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash
flooding today over portions of the Carolinas and southeastern
Virginia.

2. Tropical storm force wind gusts will continue across much of
South Carolina and central and eastern North Carolina, with
sustained tropical storm force winds expected along the coast of the
Carolinas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/1500Z 34.7N  80.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 12H  12/0000Z 36.6N  77.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 24H  12/1200Z 39.3N  71.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  13/0000Z 42.8N  61.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  13/1200Z 45.5N  49.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  14/1200Z 48.2N  23.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  15/1200Z 49.0N   9.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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