[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

Tue Oct 9 23:57:43 CDT 2018

WTUS82 KTAE 100457
HLSTAE
ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-101300-

Hurricane Michael Local Statement Advisory Number 14
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL  AL142018
1257 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 /1157 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018/

This product covers EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...FLORIDA BIG BEND...SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA

**UNPRECEDENTED EVENT EXPECTED FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
      Clay, Coffee, Dale, Henry, Lee, Quitman, Randolph, and Terrell
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
      Coastal Bay, Coastal Dixie, Coastal Franklin, Coastal Gulf,
      Coastal Jefferson, Coastal Taylor, Coastal Wakulla, Inland
      Franklin, Inland Gulf, Inland Wakulla, and South Walton
    - A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Baker, Brooks, Calhoun,
      Calhoun, Central Walton, Colquitt, Decatur, Dougherty, Early,
      Gadsden, Geneva, Grady, Holmes, Houston, Inland Bay, Inland
      Jefferson, Jackson, Leon, Liberty, Miller, Mitchell, North
      Walton, Seminole, Thomas, Washington, and Worth
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Ben Hill, Berrien,
      Cook, Inland Dixie, Inland Taylor, Irwin, Lafayette, Lanier,
      Lowndes, Madison, Tift, and Turner

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 210 miles south-southwest of PANAMA CITY or about 200
      miles south-southwest of APALACHICOLA
    - 27.1N 86.5W
    - Storm Intensity 125 mph
    - Movement North or 355 degrees at 12 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Catastrophic storm surge and winds are expected from Michael.
Hurricane Michael continues to strengthen and is currently a strong
category 3. Michael is expected to intensify to category 4 before
landfall. Michael will make landfall tomorrow along the Florida
Panhandle Coast. This is an unprecedented event as there are no
Category 4 storms on record to have made landfall along the Florida
Panhandle coast. Michael is expected to bring life-threatening storm
surge, widespread power outages that will last days to even more than
a week in some areas, downed trees that will block access to roads and
endanger individuals, structural damage to homes and businesses,
isolated flash flooding and the potential for tornadoes. Trees falling
on homes will become a dangerous and potentially deadly situation. If
you have been ordered to evacuate by authorities, we urge you to do
so. Tonight is your last chance to move to a safer location.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible devastating
impacts across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend coastline. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Widespread deep inundation, with storm surge flooding greatly
      accentuated by powerful battering waves. Structural damage to
      buildings, with many washing away. Damage greatly compounded
      from considerable floating debris. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for an extended period.
    - Near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or
      severely flooded. Flood control systems and barriers may become
      stressed.
    - Extreme beach erosion. New shoreline cuts possible.
    - Massive damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Numerous small craft broken away from moorings with many lifted
      onshore and stranded.

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible devastating
impacts across the Florida Panhandle, Western Big Bend, SW Georgia and
SE Alabama. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof
      and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage
      greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations
      may be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
    - Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Widespread power and communications outages.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across the Florida Panhandle, Western Big Bend, SW
Georgia and SE Alabama. Potential impacts include:
    - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
      multiple places. Small streams, creeks, and ditches may become
      dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become
      stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
      Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
      underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
      Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible limited
to significant impacts across Eastern Big Bend.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a dangerous tornado event having possible significant
impacts across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. Potential impacts
include:
    - The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots
      of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
    - Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
      homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or
      uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about.
      Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.

Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across SE Alabama and SW Georgia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions, including
possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind, falling
trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move, relocate to
a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep roadways open
for those under evacuation orders.

If evacuating, follow designated evacuation routes. Seek traffic information
on roadway signs, the radio, and from official sources.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:

If heading to a community shelter, become familiar with the shelter
rules before arrival, especially if you have special needs or have
pets. Take essential items with you from your Emergency Supplies Kit.

Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury or loss of
life. Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any
orders that are issued. Remember, during the storm 9 1 1 Emergency
Services may not be able to immediately respond if conditions are
unsafe. This should be a big factor in your decision making.

Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles
can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide
poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly
ventilated area.

Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and
hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge
zone. Even if you are not in a surge-prone area, you could find
yourself cutoff by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed
evacuation orders issued by the local authorities.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of
strong winds or flooding.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Tallahassee FL around 6 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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