[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

Tue Oct 9 22:47:12 CDT 2018

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Hurricane Michael Local Statement Advisory Number 14
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL  AL142018
1146 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018

This product covers Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia

**HURRICANE MICHAEL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WITH LOCAL IMPACTS
EXPECTED TOMORROW**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Appling, Atkinson,
      Bacon, Brantley, Charlton, Clinch, Coastal Camden, Coastal
      Glynn, Coffee, Columbia, Echols, Gilchrist, Hamilton, Inland
      Camden, Inland Glynn, Jeff Davis, Pierce, Suwannee, Ware, and
      Wayne

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 380 miles southwest of Jacksonville FL or about 310 miles
      southwest of Gainesville FL
    - 27.1N 86.5W
    - Storm Intensity 125 mph
    - Movement North or 355 degrees at 12 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Michael was moving north at 12 mph over the eastern Gulf
of Mexico and will continue to strengthen before landfall. Michael is
forecast to make landfall over the Florida Panhandle Wednesday as a
major hurricane and then track northeastward over the southeast United
States. There is a good possibility for tropical storm force winds
across our area. For northeast Florida these winds could arrive early
Wednesday morning, while southeast Georgia could see tropical storm force
winds Wednesday afternoon. These winds could cause numerous power outages due
to falling trees and powerlines. Rain bands will continue to move into north
central Florida tonight and increase through the day tomorrow, with a few
tornadoes and waterspouts possible. Localized flooding is also possible
across southeast Georgia and along the Suwannee River valley in Florida.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Prepare for dangerous wind having possible significant impacts across
across southeast Georgia and the Suwannee Valley. Potential impacts
in this area include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
      in areas with above ground lines.

Also, prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts
across the rest of northeast Florida.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts across the northwestern zones in Georgia. Potential impacts
include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and
      ditches overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

Prepare for locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across the rest of the forecast area.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across
Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible moderate
impacts across the southeast Georgia coast. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.

Also, prepare for locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across the northeast Florida coast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep
roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, plan to move to safe shelter.

Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that
are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives of
others.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of
strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness
activities to become unsafe.

Be sure to let friends and family members know of your intentions for
weathering the storm and your whereabouts. Have someone located away
from the threatened area serve as your point of contact. Share vital
contact information with others. Keep cell phones handy and charged.

Check on those who may not be fully aware of the situation or who are
unable to make personal preparations.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.

There is a threat from tornadoes with this storm. Have multiple ways
to receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Jacksonville FL around 6 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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