[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091205
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Michael is centered near 24.5N 86.1W at 09/1200 UTC or
345 nm S of Panama City in Florida, or about 320 nm S of
Apalachicola, Florida moving NNW, or 345 degrees 10 kt. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 968mb. The maximum
sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Satellite
imagery shows numerous strong convection within 60 nm of the
center in the NE and SE quadrants. Scattered strong convection is
elsewhere within 90 nm of the center, except 120 nm in the SW
quadrant. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection composes
an outer rainband within 60 nm of a line from 22N85W to 24N84W to
25.5N84.5W, and another one within 30 nm of a line from 26N87W to
24N88W. Michael is forecast to become a major hurricane in about
24 hours or so. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along parts
of the coasts of the Florida Panhandle, in the Florida Big Bend,
and Nature Coast, and a storm surge warning is in effect for these
areas. Residents in these areas should follow all advice given by
their local officials. A hurricane warning has been issued for
parts of the Florida Gulf Coast, and everyone in these areas
should prepare for life-threatening winds associated with the core
of Michael. Damaging winds also will extend inland across parts
of the Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama
as Michael moves inland. It is possible that heavy rainfall from
Michael may produce life-threatening flash flooding from the
Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into sections of Georgia and
South Carolina. Hurricane conditions will continue in parts of
western Cuba through this evening, where a hurricane warning is in
effect. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash
flooding in parts of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. The Public
Advisories for Michael are being transmitted via the WMO header
WTNT34 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. The
Forecast/Advisories for Michael are under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC,
and AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

Tropical Storm Leslie is centered near 32.2N 43.9W at 09/0900 UTC
or about 900 nm WSW of the Azores moving SSE, or 155 degrees at
11 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speed is 55 knots with gusts to 65 kt.
Scattered moderate isolated convection is within 180 nm of the
center in the NE quadrant. Scattered moderate convection is within
60 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Leslie is forecast to
acquire a slower motion toward the southeast over the next day or
two, with a turn toward the east-northeast forecast for Thu.
Leslie is forecast to reach minimal hurricane force by early
afternoon on Wed near 28.1N 42.0W, and intensify slightly through
late Thu night into early Fri. The Public Advisories for Leslie
are under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC, and AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. The
Forecast/Advisories for Leslie are under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC,
and AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

The low pressure that is in the far eastern tropical Atlantic was
upgraded to Tropical Depression Fifteen at 1000 UTC this morning.
AT 1000 UTC it was located near 10.3N 29.7W moving WNW or 285
degrees at 10 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008
mb. The maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Latest satellite imagery shows scattered strong convection within
180 nm of the center in the E semicircle, and also from 07N to
10N between 24W and 26W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is elsewhere within 210 nm of the center in the NE
quadrant. The depression is forecast to turn to the NW tonight and
that general motion should continue on Wed through Thu. The
depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm by
tonight. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 45W from 04N
to 19N, moving westward near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is east of the wave from 10N to 14N between 40W and 44W. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are within 180 nm west of the wave from
13N to 17N.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave has axis is along 72W south
of 19N, moving westward at 13 kt. Upper-level cyclonic wind flow
is to the north of Hispaniola. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is within 180 nm west of the wave south of 13N to
inland Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal regions of
Mauritania near 17N16W to 16N20W to near 11N28W. It resumes to
the west of recently formed Tropical Depression Fifteen at a
position of 09N31W to 08N39W. The ITCZ axis begins at 11N46W and
continues to 09N57W. In addition to convection associated with
Tropical Depression Fifteen, scattered strong convection is seen
within 60 nm either side of the trough between 31W and 35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Hurricane Michael is the main feature in the basin. See Special
Features above for details on Michael.

Otherwise, a narrow upper level trough extends from the area that
is near the Yucatan Channel, northwestward, to SE Louisiana. An
upper level ridge is to the east of the trough, and an upper level
ridge is to the west of the trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

In the wake of Hurricane Michael, strong south to southwest winds
along with seas of 9 to 13 ft will linger in the Yucatan Channel
through mid-day before subsiding to 7 to 10 ft in the afternoon.
Seas elsewhere N of 18N and W of 85W are in the 6 to 8 ft and will
continue through today. Outer rainbands from Michael are bringing
scattered squalls and thunderstorms to portions of western Cuba.
This activity will gradually lift northward into the southern Gulf
of Mexico through late this afternoon. This activity is likely to
continue to induce very heavy rainfall along with isolated amounts
of 12 inches over the portions of western Cuba it affects. This
may lead to life-threatening flash floods.

Expect moderate trades across the rest of the Caribbean Sea,
diminishing toward the weekend as the surface pressure gradient
weakens even more.

Upper-level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 67W
eastward, associated with the Atlantic Ocean 19N51W-to-12N55W
trough. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers much of the rest
of the Caribbean Sea, between 67W and 81W, and away from the NW
corner of the Caribbean Sea with Hurricane Michael.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 22N71W. A
narrow NW-to-SE oriented trough extends northwestward for about
500 nm. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover
the area that runs from 17N in the Caribbean Sea, across
Hispaniola, to 25N in the Atlantic Ocean, between 65W and 73W.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers also are
from 26N to 30N between 70W and 77W.

An upper level trough passes through 30N27W to 24N44W to 19N51W
and 12N55W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow is within 180 nm to 240
nm on either side of the trough from 45W eastward, and within 660
nm on either side of the trough elsewhere. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the areas of the
Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean from 10N to 15N between 52W
and 65W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere in the areas of upper
level cyclonic wind flow.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is about 280 nm to the
west of Morocco. A 1010 mb low pressure center is about 80 nm to
the WSW of the Madeira Archipelago. A surface trough extends from
the low pressure center to 28N21W and 25N23W. Isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers are from 30N to 34N between 10W and
16W.

A surface trough is along a position from near 29N45W to 26N48W
to 24N53W. This trough is to the south of the broad surface
cyclonic wind flow that is associated with Leslie. Isolated
showers are within 60 nm of the trough.

Hurricane Michael near 24.1N 85.8W 973 mb at 5 AM EDT moving NNW
at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt. Michael will
move to 25.7N 86.3W this afternoon, 27.9N 86.4W Wed morning,
29.9N 85.6W Wed afternoon, move inland and weaken to a tropical
storm near 32.3N 83.4W Thu morning, and inland to 36.5N 75.5W Fri
morning. Michael will become extratropical as it moves to 42.5N
60.5W early Sat, and continue to 49.0N 40.5W Sun. Otherwise and
elsewhere, expect moderate trades, diminishing towards the weekend
as the pressure gradient slackens even more.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT/Aguirre
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