[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
203 AM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Michael at 09/0600 UTC is near 23.6N
85.7W, or about 730 km/395 nm S of Panama City in Florida, or
about 685 km/370 nm S of Apalachicola in Florida. MICHAEL is
moving NNW, or 345 degrees, 10 knots. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 973 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are
80 knots with gusts to 100 knots. Numerous strong rainshowers are
from 22N to 25N between 82W and 87W, to the NW of NW Cuba.
Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are on the southern side
of Cuba, from 21N to the northern side of Cuba between 81W and
83W. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are within 140 nm to
the north of the eastern coastal sections of Honduras. Widely
scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong rainshowers
are elsewhere from Honduras northward, into the eastern Gulf of
Mexico, to Florida, between 80W and 88W. Michael is forecast to
become a major hurricane in about 24 hours or so. Life-threatening
storm surge is likely along parts of the coasts of the Florida
Panhandle, in the Florida Big Bend, and Nature Coast, and a storm
surge warning is in effect for these areas. Residents in these
areas should follow all advice given by their local officials. A
hurricane warning has been issued for parts of the Florida Gulf
Coast, and everyone in these areas should prepare for life-
threatening winds associated with the core of Michael. Damaging
winds also will extend inland across parts of the Florida
Panhandle, southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as Michael
moves inland. It is possible that heavy rainfall from Michael may
produce life-threatening flash flooding from the Florida Panhandle
and Big Bend region into sections of Georgia and South Carolina.
Hurricane conditions will continue in parts of western Cuba
through this evening, where a hurricane warning is in effect.
Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding
in parts of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico during the next couple of days. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for
MICHAEL are being transmitted via the WMO header WTNT34 KNHC, and
via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for
MICHAEL are being transmitted via the WMO header WTNT24 KNHC, and
via the AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

The center of Tropical Storm Leslie at 09/0300 UTC is near 32.9N
44.6W. LESLIE is moving SE, or 135 degrees, 12 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 55 knots with gusts to 65 knots.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 150
nm of the center in the NE quadrant. LESLIE is forecast to move
southeastward, and reach the level of a category one hurricane in
about 48 hours or so. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for LESLIE are
transmitted via the WMO header WTNT33 KNHC, and via the AWIPS
header MIATCPAT3. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for LESLIE are
transmitted via the WMO header WTNT23 KNHC, and via the AWIPS
header MIATCMAT3.

A 1010 mb low pressure center is near 10N28W, about several
hundred miles to the southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. A
tropical wave is along 28W/29W from 14N southward. The low
pressure center is becoming better defined. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for further development.
It is likely that a tropical depression may form within a day or
two, while the system moves generally west- northwestward. Strong
upper level winds are expected to limit further development later
in the week. The chance for development into a tropical cyclone is
high. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are within 120 nm
of the center in the SE semicircle. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers are elsewhere within 90 nm of the center, and
from 12N to 14N between 25W and 30W. Please read the latest NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20
KNHC, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W/44W from 19N
southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 11N to 15N between 40W and 45W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W/72W from 19N
southward. Upper level cyclonic wind flow is to the north of
Hispaniola. Rainshowers have been occurring in Hispaniola during
the last six hours or so. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers
are in northern sections of Colombia, from 10N northward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal regions of
Mauritania near 17N16W, to 16N20W, toward the 1010 mb low pressure
center that is near 10N28W, to 07N34W, and 06N38W. The ITCZ is
along 10N/11N between 46W and 60W. Scattered moderate to strong
rainshowers are from 04N to 12N between 09W and 16W. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are elsewhere
from 03N to 16N from 36W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Hurricane Michael is moving into the SE corner of the area. The
forecast for MICHAEL is for it to move northward during the next
48 hours. Expect heavy rainfall amounts, tropical storm-force and
hurricane-force wind speeds, building sea heights, and storm surge
along and near the continued northward path of MICHAEL.

A narrow upper level trough extends from the area that is near the
Yucatan Channel, northwestward, to SE Louisiana. An upper level
ridge is to the east of the trough, and an upper level ridge is to
the west of the trough.

Hurricane Michael near 23.2N 85.3W 970 mb at 11 PM EDT moving N
at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt. Michael will
move to 24.7N 85.9W Tue morning, 26.8N 86.3W Tue evening, 29.1N
85.9W Wed morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near
31.4N 84.4W Wed evening, and inland to 35.9N 77.3W Thu evening.
Michael will become extratropical as it moves to 41.5N 63.8W late
Fri, and continue to 47.8N 46.0W Sat. Conditions should improve by
the end of the week as Michael speeds off to the N and NE of the
area, potentially dragging a cold front or frontal trough down S
of 31N in its wake.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Hurricane Michael near 23.2N 85.3W 970 mb at 11 PM EDT moving N
at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt. Michael will
move to 24.7N 85.9W Tue morning, 26.8N 86.3W Tue evening, 29.1N
85.9W Wed morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near
31.4N 84.4W Wed evening, and inland to 35.9N 77.3W Thu evening.
Michael will become extratropical as it moves to 41.5N 63.8W late
Fri, and continue to 47.8N 46.0W Sat. Expect moderate trades
across the rest of the Caribbean Sea, diminishing toward the
weekend as the surface pressure gradient weakens even more.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 67W
eastward, associated with the Atlantic Ocean 19N51W-to-12N55W
trough. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers much of the rest
of the Caribbean Sea, between 67W and 81W, and away from the NW
corner of the Caribbean Sea with Hurricane Michael.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 22N71W. A
narrow NW-to-SE oriented trough extends northwestward for about
500 nm. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover
the area that runs from 17N in the Caribbean Sea, across
Hispaniola, to 25N in the Atlantic Ocean, between 65W and 73W.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers also are
from 26N to 30N between 70W and 77W.

An upper level trough passes through 30N27W to 24N44W to 19N51W
and 12N55W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow is within 180 nm to 240
nm on either side of the trough from 45W eastward, and within 660
nm on either side of the trough elsewhere. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the areas of the
Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean from 10N to 15N between 52W
and 65W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere in the areas of upper
level cyclonic wind flow.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is about 280 nm to the
west of Morocco. A 1010 mb low pressure center is about 80 nm to
the WSW of the Madeira Archipelago. A surface trough extends from
the low pressure center to 28N21W and 25N23W. Isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers are from 30N to 34N between 10W and
16W.

A surface trough is along 29N46W 26N50W 24N55W. This trough is to
the south of the broad surface cyclonic wind flow that is
associated with T.S. LESLIE. Isolated moderate rainshowers are
from 24N northward between 30W and 60W.

Hurricane Michael near 23.2N 85.3W 970 mb at 11 PM EDT moving N
at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt. Michael will
move to 24.7N 85.9W Tue morning, 26.8N 86.3W Tue evening, 29.1N
85.9W Wed morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near
31.4N 84.4W Wed evening, and inland to 35.9N 77.3W Thu evening.
Michael will become extratropical as it moves to 41.5N 63.8W late
Fri, and continue to the 47.8N 46.0W Sat. A surface trough will
move W-NW through the Bahamas through tonight, moving W of the
area thereafter. The surface pressure gradient between this trough
and the ridge will support fresh to strong winds and higher seas
near the northern part of the trough.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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