[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Hurricane Michael Local Statement Advisory Number 10
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL  AL142018
1156 PM EDT Mon Oct 8 2018

This product covers Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia

**HURRICANE MICHAEL STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Appling, Atkinson,
      Bacon, Clinch, Coffee, Columbia, Echols, Gilchrist, Hamilton,
      Jeff Davis, Suwannee, and Ware

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 480 miles south-southwest of Gainesville FL or about 580
      miles south-southwest of Waycross GA
    - 23.2N 85.3W
    - Storm Intensity 90 mph
    - Movement North or 350 degrees at 12 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Michael was moving north at 12 mph and is strengthening
as it tracks into the Gulf of Mexico. Michael is forecast to make
landfall over the Florida Panhandle or Big Bend coast Wednesday as a
major hurricane and then track northeastward over the southeast United
States. The possibility remains for tropical storm force winds across
southeast Georgia, and for portions of inland northeast Florida,
arriving as early as Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. There is also
a low possibility of hurricane force wind gusts for portions of inland
southeast Georgia and the Suwannee River Valley in northeast Florida.
These winds could cause numerous power outages due to falling trees
and powerlines. Rainbands associated with Michael will move into the
local area beginning late Tuesday night through early Thursday
morning. Inland and river flooding is also a concern, mainly across
southeast Georgia closest to the expected track of Hurricane Michael.
A few tornadoes are also possible over inland areas as rainbands move
through.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Prepare for life-threatening wind having possible extensive impacts
across southeast Georgia and inland areas of northeast Florida.
Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

Also, prepare for dangerous wind having possible limited to
significant impacts east of Highway 301 to near the northeast Florida
coast.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts across inland southeast Georgia and the Suwannee River Valley
in north central Florida. Potential impacts include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and
      ditches overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

Prepare for locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across the rest of the forecast area.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts west of Highway 301.
Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

Elsewhere across Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia, little to
no impact is anticipated.

* SURGE:
Little to no impacts are anticipated at this time across Northeast Florida
and Southeast Georgia.

* OTHER COASTAL HAZARDS:
Life threatening rough surf and rip currents are expected along the
area beaches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions, including
possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so immediately.

If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind and allow extra time to
get there. Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up your vehicle ahead of time.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, plan to move to safe shelter.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the ocean or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or poor
drainage area, in a valley, or near an already swollen river, plan to
move to safe shelter on higher ground.

Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that
are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives of
others.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of
strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness
activities to become unsafe.

Check on those who may not be fully aware of the situation or who are
unable to make personal preparations.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.

There is a threat from tornadoes with this storm. Have multiple ways
to receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Jacksonville FL around 6 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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