[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061204
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
804 AM EDT Sat Oct 6 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Leslie centered near 37.2N 56.4W at 06/0900 UTC
or 510 nm NE of Bermuda moving NE at 7 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50
kt with gusts to 60 kt. A faster motion toward the east and east-
southeast is expected through the middle of next week, taking
Leslie across the central and eastern Atlantic. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is within 75 nm of the
center, and scattered moderate isolated strong convection is well
NE of the center from 38N-41N between 49W-57W. See the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC,or, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC, for more
details.

A large cyclonic gyre across the NW Caribbean is centered near
the NE coast of Honduras near 17N76W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is over most of the NW Caribbean north of 14N west of
80W. Environmental conditions are expected to become gradually
moreconducive for further development, and a tropical depression
is expected to form over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or the
southern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend or early next week while
the system moves slowly north-northwestward at about 5 mph.
Interests in the Yucatan peninsula and western Cuba should monitor
the progress of this system during the next several days.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this disturbance will
continue to bring torrential rains to portions of Central America,
the Yucatan peninsula, and western Cuba into next week. There is
a high chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 36W from 03N-16N, moving west at 10-15
kt. GOES-16 TPW imagery shows a moisture maximum surrounding the
wave. The wave also has an associated 700 mb trough. Scattered
moderate convection is E of the wave axis from 07N-11N between
30W-36W.

A tropical wave is along 53W from 06N-18N moving west at 10 kt.
The wave has an associated 700 mb trough. Scattered moderate
convection is E of the wave axis from 07N-15N between 44W-54W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 08N13W
to 06N20W to 09N30W to 09N35W. The ITCZ extends from 08N38W to
08N52W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the tropical waves
section, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along
the coast of W Africa from 01N-09N between 10W-22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1020 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 32N77W.
Surface ridging extends W from the high to E Texas along 30N
producing 10-15 kt E to SE winds. Scattered showers are over the
NW Gulf.

In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over the
central Gulf near 28N89W.

Expect surface ridging to prevail over the forecast area through
the weekend, however, moisture will start to advect N from the NW
Caribbean to the SE Gulf this evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A large cyclonic gyre is over the NW Caribbean. See above.

Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is over the
northern Caribbean from 18N-22N between 60W-78W. Elsewhere,
scattered moderate convection is over the central Caribbean from
13N-17N between 67W-72W.

Expect active convection to persist across the central and
western Caribbean during the slow drift of the cyclonic gyre into
the southern Gulf of Mexico.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving westward across the Atlantic. See
above. T.S. Leslie is also described in Special Features section.

A surface trough is over the E Atlantic from 31N24W to 21N40W.
Scattered showers are within 150 nm east of the trough axis
mainly north of 26N.

In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over the
central Atlantic near 29N62W. Upper level diffluence E of the
center is producing a line of convection from 32N47W to 23N58W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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