[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060555
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Sat Oct 6 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Leslie is centered near 36.2N 58.1W at 0300 UTC,
about 455 nm NE of Bermuda moving ENE at 6 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt
with gusts to 60 kt. Eastward motion is expected during the next
24 hours, followed by a turn toward the east-southeast. Leslie
remains a large tropical cyclone, with tropical storm winds
extending outward up to 290 miles from the center. Numerous
moderate convection is within 75 nm of the center, and scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is well east of the center
from 32N-40N. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details.

A large cyclonic gyre across the NW Caribbean is centered near
the NE coast of Honduras. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is observed over most of the NW Caribbean north of
14N west of 80W. A tropical depression may form by late this
weekend or early next week in the NW Caribbean or southern Gulf
of Mexico. This disturbance will bring heavy rain to a large
portion of Central America and the Yucatan peninsula during the
next few days. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone
formation within 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 35W from 03N-16N, moving west at 10 kt.
GOES-16 TPW imagery shows a moisture maximum surrounding the
wave. The wave also has an associated 700 mb trough. Scattered
moderate convection is from 04N-14N between 33W-40W.

A tropical wave is along 52W from 06N-18N moving west at 10 kt.
The wave has an associated 700 mb trough. Scattered moderate
convection is from 07N-14N between 44W-51W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 08N13W
to 06N18W to 09N29W to 09N34W. The ITCZ extends from 08N38W to
the northeast coast of Venezuela near 06N53W. Aside from the
convection mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered
moderate convection is from 04N-07N between 13W-23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Showers are moving westward over the central Gulf from a surface
trough along 91W. A weak surface trough is over the western Bay
of Campeche from 22N97W to 18N92W with few showers. The rest of
the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge.

Expect surface ridging to prevail over the forecast area through
the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A large cyclonic gyre is over the NW Caribbean. See above.

Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is over the
northern Caribbean from 18N-22N between 60W-78W. Expect active
convection to persist across the central and western Caribbean
during the slow drift of the cyclonic gyre into the southern
Gulf of Mexico.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving westward across the Atlantic. See
above. TS Leslie is also described in Special Features section.

A surface trough is over the E Atlantic from 31N24W to 21N40W.
Scattered showers are within 150 nm east of the trough axis
mainly north of 26N.

In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over the
central Atlantic near 29N62W. Upper level diffluence E of the
center is producing a line of convection from 32N47W to 23N58W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell
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