[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020556
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Tue Oct 2 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Leslie centered near 32.4N 55.0W at 0300 UTC, or
500 nm E of Bermuda, moving SW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt
with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate to heavy showers are
within 120 nm of the center, and strongest convection is in a
wide band in the SW semicircle. A slow southwestward motion and
some strengthening is expected during the next 36 hours, and
Leslie is forecast to become a hurricane later today. Public
Advisories for Leslie are the WMO header WTNT33 KNHC, and the
AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. Forecast/Advisories for Leslie are
the WMO header WTNT23 KNHC, and the AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44W from 02N-14N,
moving W around 15 kt. Scattered showers are near 10N, where it
intersects the ITCZ axis.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W from 05N-17N,
moving W at 10 kt. The wave has a well defined 700 mb trough
associated with it, but lacks significant convection.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N16W
to 09N24W to 09n35W. The ITCZ extends from 09N35W to 09N57W.
Scattered showers are along the ITCZ axis between 42W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is over E Texas. Upper level diffluence E
of the trough covers much of the central Gulf. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms are occurring south of Louisiana. Showers and
thunderstorms are associated with a surface W of Florida along
85W. Expect ridging to prevail over the forecast area during the
next few days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level troughing extends over much of the NW Caribbean Sea.
Scattered showers are in the Yucatan Channel. Broad upper level
ridging is over the central and eastern Caribbean with westerly
upper level flow, leading to fair weather east of 70W.

A surface trough is nearly stationary along 77W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is seen from 12N-17N between 74W-
79W. The trough will drift slowly into the western Caribbean
over the next several days. A large cyclonic gyre is expected to
develop over this area by Friday. Large NNE swell generated from
Leslie will pass through Atlantic passages into the Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad surface cyclonic wind flow covers the central Atlantic
within a large distance surrounding Tropical Storm Leslie.
Numerous moderate convection is being generated from 25N-30N
between 37W-50W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
occurring elsewhere along a line from 25N50W to 21N54W.

A tropical wave over west Africa, expected to move into Atlantic
waters later today, is producing an area of scattered moderate
convection offshore from 08N-13N between 13W-19W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell
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