[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020001
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Mon Oct 1 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Leslie centered near 32.8N 54.6W at 2100 UTC, or
515 nm E of Bermuda, moving SW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt
with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 120
nm of the center. A slow southwestward or southward motion is
forecast during the next few days. Gradual strengthening is
expected during the next 48 hours, and Leslie is forecast to
become a hurricane on Tuesday. The Public Advisories for Leslie
are transmitted via the WMO header WTNT33 KNHC, and via the
AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. The Forecast/Advisories for Leslie are
transmitted via the WMO header WTNT23 KNHC, and via the AWIPS
header MIATCMAT3.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W from 02N-14N,
moving W around 20 kt. The southern portion of the wave has a
700 mb trough associated with it. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are from 08N-10N between 41W-45W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W from 05N-17N,
moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave has a well defined 700 mb trough
associated with it. The GOES-16 TPW imagery also shows a moist
area around the wave axis. Isolated showers are seen from 15N-
16N between 53W-54W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coastal sections of Senegal
near 13N17W to 08N36W. The ITCZ extends from 08N45W to 07N52W.
Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves,
scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 90 nm north and
180 nm south of the monsoon trough between 21W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough oriented NNE-SSW is over E Texas. Upper
level diffluence E of this feature covers much of the central and
northeast Gulf. Scattered moderate convection is noted off the
coast of Texas from 26N-30N west of 93W. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are also occurring from 27N-29N between 85W-87W. At
the surface, east winds of 10-15 kt cover most of the Gulf.
Expect ridging to prevail over the forecast area during the next
few days. A surface trough will develop each evening in the
Yucatan peninsula. The trough will move into the SW Gulf of
Mexico overnight, where it will dissipate each morning. Moderate
to fresh winds will accompany the trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level troughing extends over much of Cuba and the
northwest Caribbean Sea. Scattered showers are over the Yucatan
Channel and the Windward passage. Broad upper level ridging is
over the central and eastern Caribbean with westerly upper level
flow, leading to fair weather east of 70W.

A surface trough over the central Caribbean Sea has been nearly
stationary along 76W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
seen from 12N-16N between 72W-82W. The trough will remain nearly
stationary or perhaps move very slowly toward the western
Caribbean over the next several days. A large cyclonic gyre is
expected to develop over this area by Friday. A large NNE swell
generated from Leslie will continue to move through the Atlantic
passages into the Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A remnant cloud line from a front that dissipated during the
last 24 hours is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms
off the east coast of north-central FL and north of the
northwest Bahamas. Broad surface cyclonic wind flow covers the
central Atlantic within a large distance surrounding Tropical
Storm Leslie. In between Leslie and a mid-level high near
17N33W, numerous moderate convection is being generated from 25N-
30N between 41W-47W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
occurring elsewhere from 22N-28N between 47W and the coast of
north-central Florida, to the north and east of the Bahamas.

A tropical wave still over west Africa is producing an area of
scattered moderate convection offshore from 03N-08N between 12W-
17W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is also
occurring over Sierra Leone and Guinea.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell
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