[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280557
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1257 AM EST Wed Nov 28 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gale Warning expected for Atlantic Waters...

A cold front is presently over the west Atlantic extending from
31N68W to central Cuba near 23N80W. The front is forecast to reach
from 31N62W to eastern Cuba by Wednesday afternoon, with strong
to minimal gale force winds N of 28N, on either side of the front
tonight through Wednesday afternoon. The gale conditions will
shift E of the forecast waters. The front will move across the SE
waters on Thursday. Long period NW swell are expected in the wake
of the front, building seas in the range of 12 to 18 ft across the
waters N of 27N E of 77W late tonight through Wednesday night.
Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued under the
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from west Africa near 09N13W to
08N17W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 02N32W to South
America near 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along
the ITCZ between 20W-35W. South of the monsoon trough near west
Africa, scattered moderate convection is present between 09W-18W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridge continues to build in the wake of the front
anchored by a 1022 mb high centered over northern Gulf near
29N93W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will prevail over the
Gulf of Mexico with a considerable amount of cold air advection.

The high pressure will move eastward across the northern Gulf
waters through Thu, then across northern Florida on Fri. Under
this weather pattern, southerly return flow will develop across
the NW Gulf Wed and gradually spread across entire Gulf by Fri.
The next cold front will move off the Texas coast early this
weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front is moving across the NW Caribbean, and extends to
northern Belize near 18N88W. No significant convection is noted
in the proximity of the front. The front will reach from eastern
Cuba to Belize late Wed while weakening, with remnants of the
front lifting N across the NW Caribbean on Thu night and Fri.

To the east, a surface trough extends from 20N81W to 16N85W.
Further S, scattered moderate convection is over the southwest
Caribbean south of 12N between 80W-83W mostly due to the proximity
of the eastern extent of the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough. The
remainder of the basin remains under fair weather mostly due to an
upper-level high east of Jamaica near 18N73W with strong
subsidence across much of the basin.

A weak surface pressure gradient across the basin is producing
moderate to fresh winds across much of the basin, with fresh to
locally strong nocturnal trades along the north coast of Colombia
through the remainder of the week. Moderate to fresh trades will
dominate the waters E of the Windward Islands, while mainly gentle
to moderate winds are expected E of the Leeward Islands. Wind
waves combined with long period NW swell will keep seas in the 6-8
ft range across those waters through much of the forecast period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for information
on the Gale Warning in effect for the west Atlantic.

A cold front is over the west Atlantic extending from 31N68W to
central Cuba near 23N80W. Scattered convection is present 180 nm
east of the front north of 28N between 63W-68W. The front is
forecast to reach from 31N62W to eastern Cuba by Wednesday
afternoon, with strong to minimal gale force winds N of 28N, on
either side of the front tonight through Wednesday afternoon.
To the east, a 1015 mb high is over the west Atlantic near
22N64W. Another cold front is over the east Atlantic from 31N32W
to 22N52W then transitions to a stationary front at that point to
21N59W. Scattered showers are observed along the front. Surface
ridging prevails elsewhere.

Both cold fronts will continue moving east over the next 48 hours
with convection.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
TORRES
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