[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272358
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
658 PM EST Tue Nov 27 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gale Warning expected for Atlantic Waters...

A cold front is presently over the west Atlantic extending from
31N69W to the Straits of Florida near 25N80W. The front is
forecast to extend from 31N68W to 22N80W tonight, with gale force
winds developing ahead of the front mainly north of 28N and east
of 63W with seas ranging between 10-14 ft. Gale force winds are
also expected to develop west of the front mainly north of 29N
with seas 10-14 ft. These conditions will continue through the
29/0000 UTC. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued
under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from west Africa near 09N13W to
08N17W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 02N31W to South
America near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along
the ITCZ between 22W-44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Straits of Florida near 25N80W to
the N Yucatan Peninsula near 21N87W to 19N90W. Scattered showers
are within 60 nm on either sides of the front. Surface ridge
continues to build in the wake of the front anchored by a 1028 mb
high centered over northeast Mexico near 27N100W. Moderate to
fresh winds will prevail over the Gulf of Mexico with a
considerable amount of cold air advection.

These winds will continue through Wednesday morning. Return flow
will develop across the northwest Gulf on Wednesday and gradually
spread across the entire Gulf by the end of the week. The next
cold front will move off the Texas coast this weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends across the Yucatan Channel with scattered
showers. To the east, a surface trough extends from 20N85W to
16N86W. Further S, scattered moderate convection is over the
southwest Caribbean south of 12N between 80W-83W mostly due to
the proximity of the eastern extent of the Eastern Pacific monsoon
trough. The remainder of the basin remains under fair weather
mostly due to an upper-level high centered over Jamaica near
18N78W with strong subsidence.

A weak surface pressure gradient across the basin is producing
moderate to fresh winds across much of the basin, with fresh to
locally strong nocturnal trades along the north coast of Colombia
through the remainder of the week. The cold front over the Yucatan
Peninsula will extend from eastern Cuba to Belize tonight, then
begin weakening while moving east. The remnants of the front will
lift north across the northwest Caribbean on Thursday night and
Fri. Moderate to fresh trades and seas to 8 ft currently across
the tropical Atlantic waters E of the Windwards will subside
slightly through Wednesday night before winds become fresh to
strong by the end of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for information
on the Gale Warning in effect for the west Atlantic.

A cold front is over the west Atlantic extending from 31N69W to
the Straits of Florida near 25N80W. Scattered showers are within
60 nm south of the front. To the east, a 1016 mb high is over the
west Atlantic near 25N60W. Another cold front is over the east
Atlantic from 31N34W to 22N56W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed along the front. Surface ridging prevails elsewhere.

Both cold fronts will continue moving east over the next 48 hours
with convection.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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