[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271158
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
658 AM EST Tue Nov 27 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gale Warning for Atlantic Waters...

A cold front extends over the central Atlantic from 29N40W to
23N52W. Gale-force wind warning continues through this evening.
Seas in the area are ranging between 9-15 ft. Expect for these
conditions to persist through this evening. Please refer to the
latest High Seas Forecast issued under the AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more information.

...Gale Warning expected for Atlantic Waters...

The cold front over north Florida is forecast to move over the west
Atlantic. Gale-force winds are forecast north of 30N between 72W-
75W with seas ranging between 12-14 ft. Please refer to the latest
High Seas Forecast issued under the AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from west Africa near 10N14W to
04N20W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 02N33W to South
America near 01N50W. Scattered showers extend along and in the
vicinity of the ITCZ with more scattered moderate convection
noted from 01N to 04N between 27W-38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Gale warning is no longer in effect for the southwest Gulf
waters.

A cold front extends from north Florida near 26N82W to 18N93W.
Scattered showers prevail ahead of the front north of 18N and
east of 93W and near the coastal waters along the Florida
peninsula. A 1027 mb surface ridge is building in the wake of the
front. Scatterometer data shows northerly flow prevailing behind
the front with moderate to fresh winds across the northwest
portion of the Gulf of Mexico.

The cold front will continue to move southeast, shifting out of
the gulf waters today. High pres will build in the wake of the
front and prevail through Fri. The next cold front will move off
the Texas coast early this weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scatterometer data shows gentle to moderate tradewinds present
over the Caribbean with the strongest winds along the coast of
north Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is noted along
the coast of Panama and Costa Rica due to the proximity of the
monsoon trough. The remainder of the basin remains under fair
weather mostly due to upper-level ridging with strong subsidence.

A weak pres gradient across the basin is producing moderate to
fresh winds across much of the area, with fresh to locally strong
nocturnal trades along the N coast of Colombia through the
remainder of the week. A cold front will move into the Yucatan
Basin late this morning, and weaken from the E tip of Cuba to
Belize late Wed, with remnants of the front lifting N across the
NW Caribbean on Thu night and Fri. Moderate to fresh trades and
seas to 8 ft currently across the tropical Atlc waters E of the
Windwards will subside slightly through Wed night before winds
becoming fresh to strong Thu through Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for information
on the Gale Warning in effect for the central Atlantic and the
one expected by 28/0900 UTC.

Scattered showers are present along the coast of South Florida
mainly west of 78W due to an approaching cold front. A 1018 mb
high is centered over the west Atlantic near 25N65W. To the east,
a cold front is over the central Atlantic from 30N40W to 23N51W,
then transitions to a stationary front from that point to 22N55W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm E of front from
28N36W to 28N42W. A 1022 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic
near 27N27W.

A cold front will shift southeastward across the forecast waters,
moving E of the area Wednesday night through Thursday. Strong to
near gale force winds will develop over the waters N of 28N this
afternoon, increasing to minimal gale force tonight through Wed.
Gale conditions will shift E of the forecast waters Wed night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Torres
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