[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270555
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1255 AM EST Tue Nov 27 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gale Warning for Atlantic Waters...

A cold front extends over the central Atlantic from 30N44W to
21N62W. Gale-force winds are noted in scatterometer data north of
30N. Seas in the area are ranging between 9-15 ft. Expect for
these conditions to persist through this evening. Please refer to
the latest High Seas Forecast issued under the AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more information.

...Gale Warning in the Western Gulf of Mexico...

A cold front extends from north Florida near 29N83W to 24N90W to
18N95W. Gale-force winds are noted in observation data south of
24N and west of 90W with seas ranging between 12-15 ft. Expect
for these conditions to persist until 27/0600. Please refer to the
latest High Seas Forecast issued under the AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more information.

...Gale Warning expected for Atlantic Waters...

The cold front over north Florida is forecast to move over the west
Atlantic by 28/0900. Gale-force winds are forecast north of 30N
between 72W-75W with seas ranging between 12-14 ft. Please refer
to the latest High Seas Forecast issued under the AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from west Africa near 08N13W to
05N18W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 02N33W to South
America near 03N50W. Scattered showers are observed 100 nm north
and south of the ITCZ between 01N-04N between 14W-37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the section above for information about the Gale Warning
currently in effect for the southwest Gulf waters.

A cold front extends from north Florida near 30N83W to 23N90W to
18N95W. Scattered showers prevail with the portion of the front
north of 28N and east of 84W. A surface ridge is building in the
wake of the front, anchored by a 1032 mb high currently centered
over northern Mexico. Aside from the gale-force wind area,
scatterometer and observation data depicts fresh to strong winds
north of the front and light to gentle southerly winds south of
the front.

The cold front will continue moving southeast tonight, shifting
out of the gulf waters today. The gale force winds will persist
across the far southwest waters along the coast of Mexico until
27/0600 UTC. high pressure will build in the wake of the front
and prevail through Friday. The next cold front will move off the
the Texas coast early this weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scatterometer data shows gentle to moderate tradewinds present
over the Caribbean with strongest winds along the coast of north
Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is noted over Panama and
Costa Rica due to the proximity of the monsoon trough. The
remainder of the basin remains under fair weather mostly due to
upper-level ridging with strong subsidence.

Seas to 8 ft currently across the tropical waters east of the
Windwards will gradually subside through Wednesday night. Fresh
to locally strong nocturnal trades are forecast along the north
coast of Colombia through the week. A cold front will move into
the Yucatan Basin late tonight and weaken from the Windward
Passage to Belize late Tuesday, with remnants of the front
lifting north across the northwest Caribbean by the end of the
week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for information
on the Gale Warning in effect for the central Atlantic and the
one expected by 28/0900 UTC.

Scattered showers are present along the coast of the Florida
peninsula mainly west of 78W due to an approaching cold front. A
1016 mb high is centered over the west Atlantic near 24N68W. To
the east, a cold front is over the central Atlantic from 30N45W
to 21N62W. Scattered moderate convection is within 240 nm E of
front from 25N40W. A 1022 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic
near 27N27W.

The front will shift across the forecast waters, moving E of the
area midweek. Strong to near gale force winds will prevail over
the waters N of 29N, increasing to minimal gale force Tue night
and Wed. Gale conditions will shift E of the forecast waters Wed
night. The west Atlantic surface high will shift east of 55W by
late today, with the ridge retracting east to central Cuba. The
cold front currently over northern Florida will move off the coast
with fresh to locally strong winds forecast north of 27N within
600 nm east of the front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Torres
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