[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261756
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1256 PM EST Mon Nov 26 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gale Warning for Atlantic Waters...

A cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N46W to 20N62W.
SW gale force winds are N of 29.5N within 240 nm E of front. Seas
are SEAS 9-15 FT. Expect gale conditions to persist until 26/2100.
Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued under the
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more information.

...Gale Warning for Atlantic Waters Forecast...

A cold front presently over S Georgia and N Florida is forecast to
extend over the W Atlantic from 31N67W to 21N77W on 28/0900 UTC.
Gale force W winds are forecast N of 30N between 72W-75W with seas
12-14 ft. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued
under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
information.

...Gale Warning in the Western Gulf of Mexico...

As of 26/1500 UTC, a cold front extends from N Florida near 31N83W
to the central Gulf of Mexico near 25N90W to 22N94W to the Bay of
Campeche near 18N94W. NW Gale force winds are S of 24N W of 95W
with seas 12-17 FT. Expect gale conditions to persist until
27/0600. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued under
the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 08N13W to 04N18W.
The ITCZ continues from that point to 03N35W to 05N46W to South
America near 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-05N
between 14W-19W, and from 03N-07N between 46W-51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A N mexico 1032 mb high is centered near 28N101W. A cold front
extends from N Florida to the Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate
convection is over the NE Gulf of Mexico from 27N-30N between 80W-
90W. See above about the Gulf of Mexico Gale. 10-20 kt S winds are
E of the front. In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over
the NW Gulf supporting the cold front.

The Gulf cold front will move SE of the gulf waters this evening
accompanied by scattered tstms. Gale force northwesterly winds
will persist across the far SW waters along the coast of Mexico
until 27/0600 UTC. A fresh breeze is forecast across the E gulf
on Tue night, with a ridge gradually setting up from the Florida
Panhandle to central Mexico by late Wed. Fresh E to SE return flow
expected across most of the Gulf of Mexico on Wed night, becoming
a strong southerly breeze over the northern waters on Fri ahead
of a cold front moving off the Texas coast late Fri night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest
winds along the coast of N Colombia. Scattered showers are noted
along the coast of NE Honduras. Similar showers are over the SW
Caribbean S of 12N. The remainder of the Caribbean has mostly fair
weather mostly due to upper level ridging with strong subsidence.

Seas to 8 ft currently across the tropical waters E of the
Windwards will gradually subside through Tue night. Fresh to
locally strong nocturnal trades are forecast along the N coast of
Colombia through the remainder of the week. A cold front will move
into the Yucatan Basin late tonight and weaken from the Windward
Passage to Belize late Tue night, with remnants of the front
lifting N across the NW Caribbean on Thu night and Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for information
on the Gale Warning in effect for the west/central Atlantic.

Scattered moderate convection is off the coast of N Florida due to
an approaching cold front. A 1018 mb high is centered over the W
Atlantic near 26N67W. A cold front over the central Atlantic
extends S to the Leeward Islands. Widely scattered moderate
convection is within 240 nm E of front N of 23N. A Gale is N of
29.5N within 240 nm E of front. A 1023 mb high is centered over
the E Atlantic near 27N27W.

Of note in the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the
central Atlantic supporting the surface front. Upper level
diffluence is E of the trough axis with convection.

The W Atlantic surface high will shift E of 55W by late Tue, with
the ridge retracting E to central Cuba. A cold front will move
off the NE Florida coast this afternoon with fresh to locally
strong SW flow forecast N of 27N within 600 nm E of the front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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