[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261129
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
629 AM EST Mon Nov 26 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gale Warning for Atlantic Waters Southeast of Bermuda...

A 980 mb surface low near 35N52W has a warm front extending east
from it to 29N29W. A cold front extends south from the low from
30N50W to 20N64W. Seas are expected to reach 15 ft in this area.
Gale-force winds are forecast until 26/1200 UTC. Please refer to
the latest High Seas Forecast issued under the AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more information.

...Gale Warning in the Western Gulf of Mexico...

A cold front extends across the northwest Gulf waters from 30N88W
to 21N97W. The front will reach from the Florida Big Bend region
to W Bay of Campeche in the morning, from the Florida Keys to E
Bay of Campeche Tue morning, then move SE of the area Tue evening
or night. Strong to near gale force northerly winds will spread
south behind the cold front today, increasing to minimal gale
force south of 25N west of 94W, and spread south across the far
southwest waters near Veracruz today through evening. Seas will
build to 12 ft in the southwest Gulf. Please refer to the latest
High Seas Forecast issued under the AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 06N11W to 05N16W.
The ITCZ continues from that point to South America near 04N51W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-07N between 16W-30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the northwest Gulf waters from 30N88W
to 21N97W near Tuxpan, Mexico with scattered moderate convection
along the boundary. To the east, a warm front extends from 29N84W
to 27N82W, then crosses the Florida Peninsula into the western
Atlantic to a 1014 mb low pressure near 29N75W. Fresh to strong
winds prevail across the northwest portion of the basin at this
time behind the front and gentle to moderate to the east of the
basin. Scattered showers are present 90 nm behind and along this
boundary near 28N between 90W-95W.

The frontal system over the eastern Gulf will lift northward
tonight. The cold front over the northwest Gulf will continue
moving southeast across the basin enhancing winds/seas. Strong
to near gale force northerly winds will spread S behind the cold
front, increasing briefly to minimal gale force S of 25N this
morning, with gale conditions spreading S across the far SW waters
offshore of Veracruz from mid morning through midnight tonight
before gradually diminishing. High pres will build in the wake of
the front and prevail through the remainder of the week. Return
flow will develop across the W Gulf Wed night and gradually spread
across the entire basin by Fri. See the section above for more
information about this front and the Gale Warning currently in
effect.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from the Atlantic near 29N48W to the
Virgin Islands near 19N62W. Scattered showers are within 180 nm
of the trough. Elsewhere, the basin is free of significant
convection due to strong subsidence in the region.

Moderate to fresh tradewinds and seas to 8 ft seas are expected
across the tropical Atlc waters E of the Lesser Antilles through
Thu. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail across most of the
Caribbean through the period, with strong nocturnal trades
forecast S of 13N along the N coast of Colombia. A cold front will
move from the Gulf of Mexico into the NW Caribbean Tue evening
and reach from central Cuba to N Belize Wed morning, before
stalling from E Cuba to N Belize Wed night. The front will
gradually weaken and drift N through Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for information
on the Gale Warning in effect for the west/central Atlantic.

A 980 mb surface low near 35N52W has a warm front extending east
from it to 29N29W. A cold front extends south from the low from
30N50W to 20N64W.

A 1014 mb low is centered over the west Atlantic near 29N75W. A
stationary front extends southwest from the low to 27N80W. To the
east, a cold front over the west/central Atlantic extends from
29N51W to 22N64W. A 980 mb low near 35N52W has a warm front
extending east from it to 29N29W. This warm front transitions to
a stationary front from that point and then continues as a cold
front near 29N27W. A trough ahead of the front is near 29N48W to
19N62W with scattered moderate convection along and ahead of the
line between 30N-21N between is east of the cold front north of
21N between 45W-52W. A weak 1015 mb high is centered over the
east of the central Bahamas near 23N72W.

Weak high pressure prevail just E of the central Bahamas this
morning and will shift NE through Tue, ahead of a cold front that
will move off the SE coast of the United States this afternoon.
This front will extend from near 31N71W to S Florida Tue
afternoon, from 30N65W to E central Cuba Wed afternoon, then stall
from near 23N65W to E Cuba Thu afternoon. This front will be
accompanied by strong to near gale force winds N of 28N Tue night
and Wed, with minimal gale force winds N of 29N E of the front Tue
night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
TORRES
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net