[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131731
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1230 PM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Storm Warning in the Gulf of Mexico...

A strong cold front is currently moving eastward across the Gulf
of Mexico. The boundary extends from 30N85W to 19N95W, and gale-force
winds are already occurring west of the front mainly west of 92W.
The gale winds will spread across the western and central Gulf,
reaching storm force off Veracruz this afternoon. The front will
reach from near Tampa Florida to the northwest Yucatan Peninsula
by late today. Winds and seas will gradually subside through late
week as the front sweeps southeast of the area by late Thu. Gentle
to moderate northerly flow will cover the Gulf Fri, with high
pressure building across the northwest Gulf Sat. Refer to the High
Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 61W from 03N-
14N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the
wave's axis affecting the Windward Islands at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 12N16W to 06N27W.
The ITCZ extends from 06N27W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 120 nm o either side of both boundaries east
of 48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong cold front extends across the basin, with gale force
winds prevailing behind the boundary. See the Special Feature
section above for more details. Scattered moderate convection is
noted along and west of the front. Elsewhere, scattered moderate
convection is over the Straits of Florida from 24N-25N between
81W-83W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is over the Leeward Islands from 21N60W to
16N62W. An upper-level low is located over the Virgin Islands near
18N63W, and is interacting with this feature to enhance scattered
moderate convection south of 21N between 57W-65W. The potential
for this trough to become a tropical or subtropical cyclone
continues to decrease. This system is forecast to bring locally
heavy rainfall to portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico over the next few days.

In the far southwest Caribbean, scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted south of 11N between 76W-82W, to
include portions of Panama, due to the East Pacific monsoon
trough.

High pressure north of the area is supporting fresh
trade winds over most of the region. The trough over the Leeward
Islands will move through Puerto Rico through late today, and to
the north of Hispaniola through Wed. Strong northerly winds and
building seas will follow a cold front that will enter the
Yucatan Channel by late Wed. Fresh northerly winds and seas to 8
ft will spread across the northwest Caribbean into Fri behind the
front, then diminish Fri into Sat the front stalls and weakens
from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The tail-end of a frontal boundary extends from 31N52W to 28N63W.
Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. A 1025 mb surface high
is centered over the E Atlantic near 33N27W.

A surface trough is over the Leeward Islands from 21N60W to
16N62W. Scattered moderate convection is noted over the Leeward
Islands and southwest Atlantic waters south of 21N between 57W-
65W. The potential for this trough to become a tropical or
subtropical cyclone continues to decrease. This system is forecast
to bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Leeward
Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the next few
days.

Fresh to strong southeast winds north of 28N will diminish
through today as high pressure over the western Atlc shift eastward
ahead of a cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast tonight.
The front will reach from near 31N74W to the central Bahamas and central
Cuba late Thu night into Fri. Meanwhile the trough along and
north of the Leeward Islands will move westward through Puerto
Rico today, north of Hispaniola Wed, and through the southern
Bahamas by late Thu. Low pressure may form along the trough as it
reaches the Bahamas then recurve northward Fri to the east of the
central Bahamas ahead of the cold front, then north of the area
Sat as the cold front reaches from Bermuda to eastern Cuba.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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