[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131130
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
630 AM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...STORM WARNING in the Gulf of Mexico...

A strong cold front is moving eastward over the Gulf of Mexico.
At 0900 UTC, the front extends from the Florida Panhandle near
31N86W to 22N94W to the western Bay of Campeche near 19N95W. Gale
force winds are W of front. The gale will spread across the
western and central Gulf, reaching storm force off Veracruz this
morning. The front will reach from near Tampa Florida to the
northwest Yucatan Peninsula by late today. Winds and seas will
gradually subside through late week as the front sweeps southeast
of the area by late Thu. Gentle to moderate northerly flow will
cover the Gulf Fri, with high pressure building across the
northwest Gulf Sat. Refer to the High Seas Forecast product under
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 59W/60W from
14N-03N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over
Trinidad from 09N-11N between 60W-62W.

A surface trough is over the Leeward Islands from 21N60W to
13N63W. Scattered moderate convection is over the Leeward Islands
is from 15N-18N between 58W-62W. Isolated moderate convection is
over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico from 17N-20N between 63W-
67W. The potential for this trough to become a tropical or
subtropical cyclone continues to decrease. This system is forecast
to bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Leeward
Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the next few
days.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 09N13W to 08N17W.
The ITCZ extends from 08N17W to 04N35W to South America near
04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the
ITCZ axis E of 43W. Scattered moderate is also from 07N-14N
between 43W-52W, mostly due to upper level diffluence.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is over the W Gulf. See the Special Feature section
above. Scattered moderate convection is within 45 nm of the front.
Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is over the Straits of
Florida from 24N-25N between 81W-83W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Tropical Wave section for details on the surface trough
over the Leeward Islands. An upper-level low is located over the
Virgin Islands near 18N63W. This upper-level low could also be
helping to enhance showers and thunderstorms in the area.

In the far southwest Caribbean, scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted south of 11N between 76W-82W, to
include portions of Panama, due to the East Pacific monsoon
trough.

High pressure north of the area is supporting fresh
trade winds over most of the region. A trough over the Leeward
Islands will move through Puerto Rico through late today, and to
the north of Hispaniola through Wed. E swell will cover the
tropical north Atlantic through mid week. Strong northerly winds
and building seas will follow a cold front entering the Yucatan
Channel late Wed. Fresh northerly winds and seas to 8 ft will
spread across the northwest Caribbean into Fri behind the front,
then diminish Fri into Sat the front stalls and weakens from
eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The tail-end of a cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N55W to
27N62W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. A 1026 mb
high is centered over the E Atlantic near 33N27W.

Of note in the upper levels, an upper level high is centered over
N Brazil near 01N55W. Upper level diffluence NE of the center is
producing convection in the tropics.

Fresh to strong southeast winds north of 28N will diminish
through today as high pressure over the western Atlc shift eastward
ahead of a cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast tonight.
The front will reach from near 31N74W to the central Bahamas and central
Cuba late Thu night into Fri. Meanwhile a trough along and north of
the Leeward Islands will move westward through Puerto Rico today, north
of Hispaniola Wed, and through the southern Bahamas by late Thu. Low
pressure may form along the trough as it reaches the Bahamas then recurve
northward Fri to the east of the central Bahamas ahead of the cold
front, then north of the area Sat as the cold front reaches from
Bermuda to eastern Cuba.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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