[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121747
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1247 PM EST Mon Nov 12 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...STORM WARNING in the Gulf of Mexico...

A strong cold front is expected to move into the northwest Gulf
of Mexico late this afternoon and reach the W Florida Panhandle
to western Bay of Campeche Tue morning. Winds will quickly
increase to gale force behind the front late today and tonight
with storm force winds developing offshore of Veracruz Tue morning
through mid afternoon. The front will then reach from near
Apalachee Bay Florida to the northern Yucatan peninsula early Wed,
and move SE of the Gulf early Thu. Winds and seas will gradually
diminish by the end of the week as the front exits the basin.
Refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...Atlantic's disturbance...

A large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms extending from near
the Leeward Islands northeastward over the tropical Atlantic for
several hundred miles is associated with a westward-moving tropical
wave and an upper-level trough. A diffluent flow aloft prevails
to the east of the upper-level trough with axis along 56W,
enhancing this convection, located from 15N-22N between 51W-59W.
Environmental conditions are forecast to gradually become more
conducive for the development of a tropical depression or a
tropical storm during the next day or so, therefore, this system
has a medium chance. The disturbance is forecast to move westward
to west- northwestward for the next few days, passing near or
north of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the
southeastern Bahamas. Interests in these areas should closely
monitor the progress of this system. Refer to the Tropical Weather
Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers TWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 50W from 10N
southward. Scattered moderate convection is present from 05N-10N
between 48W-53W.

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 61W south of
19N. Scattered showers are noted over the northern portion of the
wave affecting the Leeward Islands.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from W Africa 08N13W to 07N17W, then
transitions to ITCZ at that point to 05N41W. Scattered to isolated
strong convection is noted 180 nm north and south of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1012 mb surface low is centered over the northwest Gulf near
29N96W, with warm front extending from the low to 29N91W to
30N87W. A dissipating stationary front extends across the Bay of
Campeche. Scattered moderate convection prevails north of 26N
between 91W-95W and north of 29N and east of 90W.

The warm front will continue weakening as it lifts N and inland
today. A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf this
afternoon and reach from the W Florida Panhandle to western Bay of
Campeche Tue morning. Winds will quickly increase to gale force
behind the front late today and tonight with storm force winds
developing offshore of Veracruz Tue morning through mid afternoon.
The front will then reach from near Apalachee Bay Florida to the
northern Yucatan peninsula early Wed, and move SE of the Gulf
early Thu. Winds and seas will gradually diminish by the end of
the week as the front exits the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is entering the east Caribbean with scattered
showers. Refer to the section above for details. To the south,
scattered showers are noted south of 10N between 77W-82 due to the
monsoon trough.

Increasing thunderstorms, strong gusty winds and building seas
accompany a tropical wave along 61W as it moves across the
tropical north Atlantic waters and toward the Lesser Antilles.
Low pressure may develop along the northern portion of the
tropical wave through Tue as it continues westward across or near
the NE Caribbean and adjacent Atlantic. Elsewhere, high pressure
N of the area will support pulses of fresh to strong winds across
the Windward Passage, over adjacent waters of the SW Dominican
Republic and along the coast of Colombia through Tue. A strong
cold front will bring fresh to strong N winds and seas to 10 ft
into the Yucatan Channel and the NW Caribbean Wed night through
Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is analyzed from 31N66W to 26N80W. Scattered
showers are possible along the front.

A surface trough is from 22N55W to 17N56W. This feature is the
reflection at the surface of an upper-level trough that prevails
in the area. Refer to the Special Features section above for more
details.

Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin,
anchored by a 1028 mb high centered near 32N35W.

The front over the west Atlantic will drift N of the area late
today through early Tue. The next cold front will move off the
southeast US coast by late Wed, reaching from near 31N72W to the
central Bahamas and central Cuba late Thu night into Fri.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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