[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121121
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
621 AM EST Mon Nov 12 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...STORM WARNING in the Gulf of Mexico...

A strong cold front is expected to move into the northwest Gulf
of Mexico late this afternoon and reach the W Florida Panhandle
to western Bay of Campeche Tue morning. Winds will quickly
increase to gale force behind the front late today and tonight
with storm force winds developing offshore of Veracruz Tue morning
through mid afternoon. The front will then reach from near
Apalachee Bay Florida to the northern Yucatan peninsula early Wed,
and move SE of the Gulf early Thu. Winds and seas will gradually
diminish by the end of the week as the front exits the basin.
Refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 43W/44W from 10N
southward. Scattered moderate convection is present 150 nm on
either side of the wave axis.

An Atlantic tropical wave is relocated along 61W south of 19N.
The latest upper air analysis from Barbados and Guadeloupe
support the wave has already moved across their area. Scattered
showers are noted 90 nm west of the wave axis from 19N between 61W
and 62W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from W Africa 08N13W to 07N17W, then
transitions to ITCZ at that point to 05N41W. Scattered to isolated
strong convection is noted 180 nm north and south of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 09Z, a stationary front extends from Naples, Florida near
26N82W and transitions into a warm front from 25N84W to a 1012 mb
Low 29N96W and stationary front is dissipating over the northwest
Gulf of Mexico into the Bay of Campeche to 18N94W. Scattered
moderate convection near the northern Gulf coast from 29N between
86W to 90W.

The warm front will weaken as it lifts N and inland this morning.
A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf late this afternoon
and reach from the W Florida Panhandle to western Bay of Campeche
Tue morning. Winds will quickly increase to gale force behind the
front late today and tonight with storm force winds developing
offshore of Veracruz Tue morning through mid afternoon. The front
will then reach from near Apalachee Bay Florida to the northern
Yucatan peninsula early Wed, and move SE of the Gulf early Thu.
Winds and seas will gradually diminish by the end of the week as
the front exits the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is present along 70W from 19N southward. Upper
level NW wind flow is moving through the area of the surface
trough. No significant precipitation is observed in the proximity
of the trough.

The monsoon trough is along 07N76W in Colombia, westward.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are seen from
12N southward between 80W-84W.

Increasing thunderstorms, strong gusty winds and building seas
accompany a tropical wave along 57W as it moves across the
tropical north Atlc waters and toward the Lesser Antilles. Low
pres may develop along the northern portion of the tropical wave
through Tue as it continues westward across or near the NE
Caribbean and adjacent Atlc. Elsewhere, high pres N of the area
will support pulses of fresh to strong winds across the Windward
Passage, over adjacent waters of the SW Dominican Republic and
along the coast of Colombia through Tue. A strong cold front will
bring fresh to strong N winds and seas to 10 ft into the Yucatan
Channel and the NW Caribbean Wed night through Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes from 30N68W to the NW Bahamas, passing
across Grand Bahama Island, and beyond South Florida, into the
Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers are possible to the north of
the line.

An upper level trough is near 30N64W to 26N69W. No significant
convection is noted with the trough at this time.

An upper level trough passes through 24N54W to 19N58W, to the
20N63W upper level cyclonic circulation center, and eventually
across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands into the Caribbean Sea.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is east of the
trough axis from 17N between 52W to 58W.

The front will drift N of the area late today through early Tue.
A cold front will move off late Wed, reaching from near 31N72W to
the central Bahamas and central Cuba late Thu night into Fri. A
trough will approach the waters NE of the Leeward Islands late
today with increasing thunderstorm activity, strong gusty winds
and building seas. Low pres may develop along the trough,
eventually turning N along 70W through the remainder of the week
as the next cold front approaches.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MTorres
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