[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120607
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
107 AM EST Mon Nov 12 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...STORM WARNING in the Gulf of Mexico...

A cold front is expected to move into the northwest Gulf of
Mexico by Monday afternoon. Winds up to gale force will follow
this front over the western Gulf as it reaches the W Florida
Panhandle to western Bay of Campeche Tue morning. Winds will
quickly increase to gale force behind the front late Mon and Mon
night with storm force winds developing offshore of Veracruz Tue
morning through mid afternoon. The front will then reach from near
Apalachee Bay Florida to the northern Yucatan peninsula early
Wed, and move SE of the Gulf early Thu. Winds and seas will
gradually by the end of the week as the front exits the basin.
Refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 32W south of 09N. Scattered
moderate convection is in the vicinity of the wave, enhanced
by the proximity of the ITCZ.

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 42W/43W from 10N
southward. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is present
along and in the vicinity of the wave between 40W to 46W. This
activity is enhanced by the proximity of the ITCZ.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 55W and south of 19N. Scattered
moderate convection is noted north of 14N between 50W and 58W.

A tropical wave extends its axis along Central America and the
EPAC along 91W. No convection is observed with this wave at this
time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains over Africa 09N12W, then transitions
to ITCZ near the coast from 09N13W to 06N30W. The ITCZ resumes
near 05N33W to 06N41W, then from 05N43W to 03N51W. Scattered to
numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is within 150 nm
north and 50 nm south of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 05Z, a stationary front extends from Naples, Florida near
26N86W and transitions into a warm front at that point to 28N94W
to a 1011 mb Low 27N97W and continues south as a stationary front
over the northwest Gulf of Mexico into the Bay of Campeche from
that point to 10N94W. Scattered moderate convection is 150 nm to
the north of the boundary.

The front will weaken and lift N and inland by sunrise. A strong
cold front will move into the NW Gulf late Mon afternoon and reach
from the W Florida Panhandle to western Bay of Campeche Tue
morning. Winds will quickly increase to gale force behind the
front late Mon and Mon night with storm force winds developing
offshore of Veracruz Tue morning through mid afternoon. The front
will then reach from near Apalachee Bay Florida to the northern
Yucatan peninsula early Wed, and move SE of the Gulf early Thu.
Winds and seas will gradually by the end of the week as the front
exits the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough near 20N68W passes through the Mona Passage
, to 12N68W near eastern Caribbean Sea, to the northern coast of
Venezuela with divergence flow aloft over the Leeward Islands.
Scattered showers are seen 90nm on either side of the wave.

A surface trough is present along 65W from 19N southward. Upper
level SW wind flow is moving through the area of the surface
trough. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noticeable 180 nm east of the trough.

The monsoon trough is along 09N74W in Colombia, westward, beyond
Panama. Scattered moderate convection are seen from 12N southward
between 80W-84W.

Increasing thunderstorms, strong gusty winds and building seas
will accompany a tropical wave along 57W as it moves across the
Tropical Atlc waters and toward the Lesser Antilles overnight. Low
pres may develop along the northern portion of the tropical wave
Mon through Tue as it continues westward across or near the NE
Caribbean and adjacent Atlc. Elsewhere, high pres N of the area
will support pulses of fresh to strong winds across the Windward
Passage, over adjacent waters of the SW Dominican Republic and
along the coast of Colombia through Tue. A strong cold front will
bring fresh to strong N winds and seas to 12 ft into the Yucatan
Channel and the NW Caribbean Wed night through Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N62W to 27N63W, to the
21N64W upper level cyclonic circulation center, and eventually
across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands into the Caribbean Sea.
A surface trough is along 33N63W 30N64W 26N65W 21N67W. Isolated
moderate rainshowers are from 25N northward between 58W and 64W.
Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 20N northward between 50W
and 70W.

A cold front passes through 32N66W to 31N69W. A stationary front
continues from 31N69W to the NW Bahamas, passing across Grand
Bahama Island, and beyond South Florida, into the Gulf of
Mexico. Rainshowers are possible to the north of the line that
runs from 26N80W to 28N70W beyond 32N62W.

The current frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary
overnight, and then it will drift N of the area from Monday
through early Tuesday. Another cold front will enter the NW
part of the area late on Wednesday night, reaching from 31N72W
to the central Bahamas and central Cuba late on Thursday night.
A tropical wave will approach from the SE on Tuesday, with
increasing thunderstorm activity, strong gusty winds, and
building sea heights. It is possible that a surface low pressure
center may develop along the northern part of the tropical wave,
eventually turning N along 70W through the remainder of the week
as the next cold front approaches.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MTorres
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