[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112351
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
651 PM EST Sun Nov 11 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...STORM WARNING in the Gulf of Mexico...

A cold front is expected to move into the northwestern corner of
the Gulf of Mexico by Monday afternoon. The wind speeds are
forecast to reach GALE-FORCE at the 30-hour time for the 11/1800
UTC forecast, meaning GALE-FORCE winds starting around sunset on
Monday. The cold front is forecast to be along 30N90W 26N95.5W
25N98W at the 30-hour forecast time. The GALE-FORCE NW-to-N wind
speeds will be W of 94W and W of the cold front. The sea heights
will be building to 8 feet. STORM-FORCE winds are forecast 12
hours later, around sunrise on Tuesday morning. The 42-hour
forecast position of the cold front is 30N90W 26N91W 22N94W
18N95W. Expect the NW STORM-FORCE winds S OF 21N W OF 95W, with
sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 11 feet. Expect continued
STORM-FORCE wind speeds by the early afternoon on Tuesday. Please
read the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 30W/31W from 10N southward.
ITCZ-related precipitation is nearby.

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 43W/44W from 10N
southward. ITCZ-related precipitation is nearby.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 56W/57W from 19N southward.
16N. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are within 75 nm on
either side of the line that runs from 16N50W to 18N53W to 18N57W.
Disorganized widely scattered scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 13N to 20N between 50W and
60W.

A tropical wave is along 89W/90W, in Central America, from 17N in
Guatemala southward. Rainshowers are possible in broken low level
clouds that are moving westward across Guatemala. No precipitation
is associated with the tropical wave directly.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 11N15W, curving to 09N21W. The ITCZ continues from 09N21W to
07N29W, to 06N33W, 06N42W 06N45W, and to 04N54W in French Guiana.
Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 03N to 08N
between 37W and 42W, and from 07N to 09N between 43W and 49W.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are
elsewhere from 13N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes across Grand Bahama Island, across
South Florida along 26N, to 25N87W in the Gulf of Mexico. The
front becomes warm, and it continues to a 1014 mb low pressure
center that is near 26N96.5W, off the coast of the Deep South
of Texas. A stationary front extends southeastward, from the
1014 mb low pressure center, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico. The stationary front curves through the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, and then it curves
northwestward 28N101W in north central Mexico. Isolated moderate
to locally strong rainshowers are from 25N northward. A few
rainshowers cover the Gulf of Mexico from 21N to 25N.

The current frontal boundary will weaken and move northward
through tonight. A second and stronger cold front will move into
the NW Gulf of Mexico late on Monday afternoon into the evening,
and it will reach from the W Florida Panhandle to the western Bay
of Campeche on Tuesday morning. The wind speeds will increase to
gale force, quickly, behind the front late on Monday and Monday
night, with possible storm force winds offshore of Veracruz. The
front then will reach from Apalachee Bay Florida to the northern
Yucatan Peninsula early on Wednesday, moving SE of the Gulf of
Mexico early on Thursday. The wind speeds and the sea heights
will diminish gradually by the end of the week as the front exits
the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from an Atlantic Ocean 21N64W
cyclonic circulation center, across Puerto Rico and the Virgin
Islands, to 13N65W in the Caribbean Sea, to 10N66W in northern
Venezuela. A surface trough is along 67W/68W from 12N to 18N.
Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 12N to 13N
between 59W and 61W, from Grenada to Saint Vincent including
Barbados. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere between
60W and 70W from 20N in the Atlantic Ocean southward. A 1008 mb
low pressure center is near 12N61W, in the SE corner of the
Caribbean Sea, between Trinidad, Grenada, and Barbados.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 11/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 1.16 in
Guadeloupe, 0.30 in San Juan in Puerto Rico, 0.28 in Bermuda,
0.25 in St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands, 0.17 in Veracruz
in Mexico, and 0.03 in Curacao.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N from 73W in Colombia beyond
southern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are along the
coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica from 12N southward between 80W
and 86W, in an area of broad surface low pressure and middle level
to upper level directional wind shear.

Increasing thunderstorm activity, strong gusty winds, and
building sea heights will accompany a tropical wave as it moves
across the Tropical Atlantic Ocean waters and the lesser Antilles
this evening and tonight. It is possible that a surface low
pressure center may develop along the northern part of the
tropical wave from Monday through Tuesday, as it continues
westward across the E Caribbean Sea and the adjacent Atlantic
Ocean. Surface high pressure to the N of the Caribbean Sea will
support pulses of fresh to strong winds across the Windward
Passage, the adjacent waters of the SW Dominican Republic, and
along the coast of Colombia through Tuesday. A strong cold front
will bring fresh to strong N winds and sea heights to 12 feet into
the Yucatan Channel and the NW Caribbean Sea from Wednesday night
through Thursday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N62W to 27N63W, to the
21N64W upper level cyclonic circulation center, and eventually
across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands into the Caribbean Sea.
A surface trough is along 33N63W 30N64W 26N65W 21N67W. Isolated
moderate rainshowers are from 25N northward between 58W and 64W.
Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 20N northward between 50W
and 70W.

A cold front passes through 32N66W to 31N69W. A stationary front
continues from 31N69W to the NW Bahamas, passing across Grand
Bahama Island, and beyond South Florida, into the Gulf of
Mexico. Rainshowers are possible to the north of the line that
runs from 26N80W to 28N70W beyond 32N62W.

The current frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary
overnight, and then it will drift N of the area from Monday
through early Tuesday. Another cold front will enter the NW
part of the area late on Wednesday night, reaching from 31N72W
to the central Bahamas and central Cuba late on Thursday night.
A tropical wave will approach from the SE on Tuesday, with
increasing thunderstorm activity, strong gusty winds, and
building sea heights. It is possible that a surface low pressure
center may develop along the northern part of the tropical wave,
eventually turning N along 70W through the remainder of the week
as the next cold front approaches.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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