[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST Sun Nov 11 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale...

A strong cold front is expected to move into the northwest Gulf
of Mexico by Monday afternoon. Winds up to gale force will follow
this stronger front over the western Gulf as it reaches from near
Pensacola, Florida to Tampico, Mexico by late Monday. This feature
will likely bring strong gales over the southwest Gulf Tue, possibly
reaching storm force off Veracruz, as the second front reaches from
near Tampa, Florida to Coatzacoalcos, Mexico. Winds and seas will
diminish Wed as the front sweeps southeast of the region. Refer to
the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 26W from 11N to 02N. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted 100 nm on either
side of the wave axis with scattered disorganized convection N and
S of the ITCZ near the wave.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 38W/39W from 11N southward.
Scattered moderate convection is present 120 nm on either side
of the wave axis. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is related to the proximity of the ITCZ nearby.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 50W from 16N southward.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is mainly
concentrated 200 nm east of the wave from 16N to 12N between 47W
and 50W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 85W/86W from 20N southward.
Upper level ridge is building over the western Caribbean
increasing subsidence over the area limiting convection near the
wave axis. In addition, latest satellite imagery shows the water
vapor content is very limited in the proximity of the wave.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 07N13W to 07N14W.
The ITCZ extends from that point west to 05N24W. The ITCZ resumes
W of a tropical wave near 05N28W to 05N37, and 04N41W to 05N48W.
Abundant convection is noted on either side of the ITCZ.
Scattered moderate convection is within 08N-04N between 15W-22W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is present from 08N-01N
between 27W-38W, and from 08N-02N between 40W-47W. Scattered
showers are elsewhere associated to the monsoon trough near the
coast of Africa from 07N-04N between 09W to 13W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 03Z, cold front over central Gulf of Mexico is now a
stationary front extending from Palm Beach, Florida into the
Gulf of Mexico from 26N82W to 23N95W S to Coazacoalcoas, Mexico.
Scattered moderate convection is 90 nm behind the front between
89W to 95W.

The front will then lift northward through early Mon ahead of a
stronger cold front expected to move into the northwest Gulf by
early Mon afternoon. Winds to gale force will follow this stronger
front over the western Gulf as it reaches from near Pensacola,
Florida to Tampico, Mexico by late Mon. Strong gales are likely
over the western Gulf Tue, possibly reaching storm force off
Veracruz, as the second front reaches from near Tampa, Florida to
Coatzacoalcos, Mexico. Winds and seas will gradually diminish Wed
as the front sweeps southeast of the region.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough near 24N66W passes through Puerto Rico, to
15N66W near eastern Caribbean Sea, to the northern coast of
Venezuela with divergence flow aloft over the Leeward Islands.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 20N
southward between 57W-64W associated to the trough.

A surface trough is present along 65W from 19N southward. Upper
level SW wind flow is moving through the area of the surface
trough. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noticeable 180 nm east of the trough.

The monsoon trough is along 07N76W in Colombia, westward, beyond
Panama. Scattered moderate showers are seen from 10N southward
between 77W-81W.

Strong winds, building seas and scattered thunderstorms will
accompany the northern portion of a tropical wave currently east
of the region as it moves into the waters NE of the Leeward
Islands by late today. Fresh to strong trade winds will follow the
tropical wave into the tropical north Atlantic waters by mid
week. Elsewhere, high pressure north of the area will briefly
support fresh to strong pulses across the Windward Passage, over
adjacent waters of the SW Dominican Republic and along the coast
of Colombia Sun night. Looking ahead, a strong cold front will
bring fresh to strong N winds and seas to 12 ft into the Yucatan
Channel and the NW Caribbean Wed through Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 03Z, a cold front passes through 30N73W in the Atlantic
Ocean transitioning to a stationary front across Florida near
West Palm Beach. Scattered showers is within behind the front 90
nm northwest of the front between 74W to 80W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean from 20N
northward from 70W eastward. A 1028 mb high is near 33N45W.

A cold front extending from 30N73W to West Palm Beach, Florida
will stall and weaken over the northern Bahamas Sun. The front
will lift north and becoming diffuse Mon ahead of a stronger front
moving off the northeast Florida coast late Tue. The front will
reach from 31N73W to western Cuba Wed when a reinforcing push of
cold air will bring strong northerly winds and building seas to
the waters north of 27N by late Wed. As this happens, an area of
developing low pressure on the northern end of a tropical wave
will move into the waters northeast of the Leeward Islands Tue,
reaching north of Puerto Rico Wed, before interacting with the
stalling front Thu northeast of the southern Bahamas. Strong to
gale force winds are possible with this low.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MTorres
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