[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110010
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
708 PM EST Sat Nov 10 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 23W/25W from 11N southward.
This wave has been added to the 10/1200 UTC map analysis based on
long-loop satellite imagery and model guidance. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted 100 nm on either side of
the wave axis with scattered disorganized convection N and S of
the ITCZ near the wave.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 38W from 11N southward. This
wave has been re-positioned based on long-loop satellite imagery
and model guidance. ITCZ-related precipitation is nearby.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 48W/49W from 15N southward.
Scattered moderate to strong convection are present from 12N to
15N between 46W and 49W and from 03N to 10N between 40W to 48W
east of the wave axis.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 83W/84W from 20N southward.
The upper level trough, that passes across Hispaniola, into the
central Caribbean Sea, to the east central coast of Nicaragua, is
on top of the area of the tropical wave. Isolated moderate to
locally strong convection are from 14N southward from 79W
westward, to the coastal sections and interior sections of
Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is inland in Africa. The ITCZ is along 08N13W
07N24W. The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave near 07N27W to
07N36W. Disorganized scattered moderate to strong convection is
seen from 10N to 01N between 26W and 38W. Scattered showers are
elsewhere south of the ITCZ from 07N-03N between 09W to 23W.


GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from 30N75W in the Atlantic Ocean, across
Florida near Tampa, to 27N82W in the south central part of the
Gulf of Mexico, to 18N93W along the coast of Mexico in the SW
corner of the Gulf of Mexico, and then curving NW inland in
Mexico. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
180 nm behind the front from 90W-95W. A surface ridge has
developed from the Rio Grande Valley of Texas along 100W, to the
coastal plains of Mexico near 20N96W. Gale-force winds have
diminish as of 00 UTC.

The front will then lift northward through early Mon ahead of a
stronger cold front expected to move into the northwest Gulf by
Mon early afternoon. Winds to gale force will follow this stronger
front over the western Gulf as it reaches from near Pensacola
Florida to Tampico Mexico by late Mon. Strong gales are likely
over the southwest Gulf Tue, possibly reaching storm force off
Veracruz, as the second front reaches from near Tampa Florida to
Coatzacoalcos Mexico. Winds and seas will diminish Wed as the
front sweeps southeast of the region.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough passes through the Mona Passage, to 15N71W
near the central Caribbean Sea, to the east central coast of
Nicaragua. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
from 15N southward from 80W westward, to the coastal sections and
interior sections of Honduras and Nicaragua.

A surface trough is along 64W/65W from 20N southward. Upper level
SW wind flow is moving through the area of the surface trough.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the area
that is to the SE of the line that runs from 20N63W to 15N70W, and
from 20N southward from 60W westward.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N from 75W in Colombia,
westward, beyond Panama. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 12N southward from 75W in Colombia westward.

A surface trough is along 56W/57W from 08N to 16N. Scattered
moderate to strong rainshowers are from 12N to 15N between 54W
and 58W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
elsewhere from 12N to 20N between 50W and 60W.

Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 17N southward
from 70W westward.

Gentle to moderate trade winds across the region will prevail
through tonight. The wind speeds will increase to moderate to
fresh across the western and central Caribbean Sea on Sunday
morning, as a surface ridge builds north of the Bahamas. Fresh
to strong winds are expected across the Windward Passage, in the
adjacent waters of the SW Dominican Republic, and along the coast
of Colombia on Sunday night. The surface ridge is forecast to
shift eastward toward the north-central Atlantic Ocean through
Tuesday morning. A strong cold front will bring fresh to strong
N winds and sea heights to 12 feet into the Yucatan Channel and
the NW Caribbean Sea on Wednesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N78W in the Atlantic Ocean, across
Florida near Tampa, to 23N90W in the south central part of the
Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough is within 90 nm to the east of the
cold front, from 26N to 32N. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are to the NW of the line that passes through 32N71W
to 27N80W at the coast of Florida.

An upper level trough passes through 32N63W to 23N65W, beyond the
Mona Passage, into to the Caribbean Sea. Widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong rainshowers are from 23N northward between 60W
and 67W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 20N
northward between 58W and 67W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean from 22N
northward from 70W eastward. A 1028 mb high is near 33N45W.

The 32N78W-to-Tampa Florida cold front will become diffuse in the
Bahamas through Monday. A strong surface pressure gradient, that
will be between the cold front and a strong ridge that builds
behind across the eastern CONUS, will support fresh to strong
winds moving into the NW waters this evening. A second cold front
will move off northeast Florida on Tuesday evening, and it will
reach from Bermuda to western Cuba by late Wednesday. It is
possible that a surface trough or an area of low pressure may
form to the north of the Virgin Islands early on Wednesday, and
move to the north of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic
through Wednesday night. Fresh to near gale force winds are
possible mainly in the northern semicircle of this low pressure
center.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MMT/MT
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