[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281205
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Wed Mar 28 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface ridge in the western Atlantic Ocean and relatively
strong low pressure in northern parts of South America support
winds pulsing to gale force near the coast of Colombia. The gale
force winds will recur each night during the evening and overnight
hours, through Friday morning, while this surface weather pattern
persists. Please read the High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Weather Service under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details. This information also is found at the
following website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 08N13W to
04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W, crossing the Equator along
33W, to 01S46W at the coast of Brazil. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong rainshowers, in a disorganized pattern,
are from 07N southward from 53W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A
surface ridge extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1026 mb high pressure
center, that is near 32N78W, across south Florida and NW Cuba, to
the Yucatan Peninsula. A developing frontal boundary is
organizing itself in Texas at the moment.

The current surface ridge, from the western Atlantic Ocean into
the Gulf of Mexico, will maintain fresh to strong SE return flow
through Thursday morning. The current Texas cold front will enter
the NW Gulf of Mexico on Thursday, and then it will reach from
the Florida Big Bend to the eastern Bay of Campeche on Friday.
The front will weaken from central Florida to the Yucatan
Peninsula on Friday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
gale warning for the coastal areas near Colombia.

Seismic activity with undersea volcano Kick em Jenny, north of
Grenada near 12.18N 61.38W has steadily declined, and the alert
level for mariners has returned to normal, with an exclusion zone
of 1.5 km. Please see www.nadma.gd for additional information.

The SW part of a cold front passes through 20N70W, just to the
north of Hispaniola, and the front reaches its endpoint across SE
Cuba. Scattered to broken low level clouds and possible
rainshowers cover the area that is from 17N northward between the
Virgin Islands and 85W, including from 15N northward between 73W
and 85W.

High pressure, to the east of Jacksonville FL, will support fresh
to strong trades in the south-central Caribbean Sea through
Saturday. The wind speeds will pulse to minimal gale force near
the coast of Colombia each night through Friday morning. Large N
to NE swell will propagate into the Caribbean Sea through Friday
morning. Fresh to strong winds will develop in the Gulf of
Honduras tonight and Thursday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N54W to 27N57W, curving to 20N70W,
and eventually to SE Cuba. A surface trough is along 27N57W,
curving to 22N60W, and to 17N60W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 18N northward between 50W and
60W. isolated moderate rainshowers from 18N southward between 55W
and 61W.

over the central Atlantic extends
from 32N54W to 25N60W to 21N70W to E Cuba near 21N75W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 120 nm of the front N of 24N.

Surface ridging covers the E Atlantic E of 50W, with axis along
35W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation centered over the E Atlantic
near 27N25W. Scattered showers are over the Canary Islands,
northern Western Sahara, and southern Morocco.

The current cold front that is along 20N, weakening with time,
will push southward today and then weaken and dissipate near
Puerto Rico by Thursday. Strong NE winds will affect the southern
Bahamas, adjacent waters and Atlantic Ocean approaches through
Friday. Large NE swell will impact the waters NE of the Bahamas
through Friday morning. A new cold front will move off NE Florida
on Friday afternoon, stall N of the Bahamas on Saturday morning,
and then lift N of the area as a warm front on Saturday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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