[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280838
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
438 AM EDT Wed Mar 28 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface ridge in the western Atlantic Ocean and relatively
strong low pressure in northern parts of South America support
winds pulsing to gale force near the coast of Colombia. The gale
force winds will recur each night during the evening and overnight
hours, through Friday morning, while this surface weather pattern
persists. Please read the High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Weather Service under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details. This information also is found at the
following website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 08N13W to
04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 01N30W to Brazil near
01S46W. Isolated moderate convection is from 02N-04N between
14W-18W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-02N between
44W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1027 mb high centered over South Carolina near 34N80W extends a
ridge axis to the Yucatan Peninsula. Most of the Gulf of Mexico
has 15-25 kt SE flow with seas reaching 8 ft off the Texas coast.
Radar imagery shows the entire Gulf of Mexico is void of
precipitation.

An upper level ridge is over the Gulf of Mexico with axis along
88W.

A strong surface ridge will maintain fresh-to-strong SE return
flow through Thursday morning. A cold front is forecast to enter
the NW Gulf of Mexico on Thursday morning. The front will reach
from the Florida Big Bend to the central Bay of Campeche on Friday
morning, and then weaken from central Florida to the Yucatan
Peninsula on Friday night. High pressure will build across the SE
CONUS in the wake of the front, supporting NE moderate-to-fresh
winds through Saturday morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
gale warning for the coastal areas near Colombia.

Seismic activity with undersea volcano Kick em Jenny, north of
Grenada near 12.18N 61.38W has steadily declined, and the alert
level for mariners has returned to normal, with an exclusion zone
of 1.5 km. Please see www.nadma.gd for additional information.

As of 28/0300 UTC the tail end of a cold front enters E Cuba near
21N75W and extends to central Cuba near 22N80W. The front is void
of precipitation.

A band of scattered showers are over the Virgin Islands and the
northern Leeward Islands from 17N-20N between 61W-63W, moving E.

The base of an upper level trough is over the central and eastern
Caribbean Sea with axis along 65W. Strong subsidence is over the
central Caribbean.

High pressure in the SW N Atlantic Ocean will support fresh to
strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through
Saturday. The winds will pulse to near-gale force along the NW
coast of Colombia each night through Friday morning. A gale is
presently in effect until 28/1200 UTC. Large N to NE swells will
propagate into NE Caribbean Sea passages from Tuesday night
through Friday morning.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front over the central Atlantic extends from 32N54W to
25N60W to 21N70W to E Cuba near 21N75W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 120 nm of the front N of 24N.

Surface ridging covers the E Atlantic E of 50W, with axis along
35W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation is centered over the E
Atlantic near 27N25W. Scattered showers are over the Canary
Islands, northern Western Sahara, and southern Morocco.

The current Atlantic cold front will drift eastward and weaken
Wed night. A 1013 mb low will form over the central Atlantic near
26N54W Thu. This low will move towards the Leeward Islands near
21N58W Sat. A new cold front will move off NE Florida on Friday
afternoon, then stall on Saturday morning before it lifts N of the
area late on Saturday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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