[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261105
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EDT Mon Mar 26 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...

A combination of a surface high pressure ridge over the western
Atlc and relatively strong low pressure over northern South
America supports winds pulsing to gale force near the coast of
Colombia. The gale force winds will recur each night during the
evening and overnight hours through at least Thu morning while
this surface weather pattern persists. For more details please see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. This information can also
be found at the following website:

www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

...GALE WARNING for the METEO-FRANCE areas...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force N to NE winds are
forecast to continue for the following areas: Portions of the
AGADIR and TARFAYA zones adjacent to the coast of Morocco, and NE
CANARIAS over the Canary Islands. Winds will diminish to strong
northerly tonight.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone on the African coast
near 07N12W to 03N15W. The ITCZ continues from 03N15W to 01N27W
to the coast of Brazil near 03S42W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is present from 03N to 07N between 11W
and 15W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A back door cold front has just entered the far NE Gulf and
crosses the Florida Big Bend from near Apalachicola to Suwannee.
Scattered showers are within 60 nm N of the front. Cloudiness and
patchy rain are observed along and NW of the front. Otherwise,
fair weather prevails across the remainder of the basin as
expensive high pres ridges westward from the western Atlc across
the Gulf. Abundant dry air prevails as ridging at the mid and
upper levels of the atmosphere extends over the Gulf. Moderate to
fresh E to SE flow prevails across the basin, except for the NE
third, where winds are light to moderate. Sea heights are highest,
near 7 ft, in the NW Gulf due to the longer fetch of winds in
this area. A larger and stronger high over the E coast of the
United States will move S behind the cold front and produce more
SE surface flow over the Gulf. Developing low pres over the
central plains states will tighten the pressure gradient over the
Gulf and cause winds to become fresh to strong on Tue. The next
cold front will enter the NW Gulf on Wed night. Surface troughing
is expected to develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each day, then
migrate W over the Bay of Campeche during the evening and
nighttime hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Undersea volcano Kick'em Jenny, north of Grenada near 12.18N
61.38W, is in a state of unrest. The government of Grenada advises
mariners to observe a 5 km or 3.1 nm exclusion zone around
Kick'em Jenny. Please refer to the web page, www.nadma.gd, for
additional information.

Relatively quiet conditions continue across the basin as
convergent upper-level flow on the south side of mid to upper-
level troughing over the western Atlc maintains a relatively dry
and subsident weather pattern over the basin. Trade winds are
strongest over the waters N of the coast of Colombia. Winds are
expected to reach gale-force during the evening and overnight
hours. Winds will continue pulsing every night through Thu
night/Fri morning. The current gale warning will expire this
morning at 1200 UTC. See the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for
more details. Otherwise, ridging extending southward from along
the east coast of the United States will maintain moderate to
fresh NE to E winds over the Caribbean basin through mid week.
Winds will be fresh to strong over the Windward Passage and to the
lee of Cuba during this time frame.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front crosses the NW Atlantic from 32N65W to 29N70W to
28N76W to Cape Canaveral Florida near 28.5N81W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is found along and up to
90 nm S of the front E of 78W. Cloudiness and patchy rain are seen
N of the front and S of 31N. This front will continue moving SE
and begin to weaken on Tue. The front will slow down as it weakens
and eventually stretch from 32N53W to 25N57W to N of Puerto Rico
near 19N67W by Wed night. A nearly stationary front extends SW
over the central Atlantic from 32N48W to 22N61W, then continues as
a dissipating stationary front to the Virgin Islands near 19N65W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed within 30 nm of this
boundary. This front is expected to weaken into a trough by
tonight. Otherwise, expansive 1032 mb surface high pressure
centered over the Azores near 38N24W ridges WSW all the way into
the western Atlantic. The high is generating moderate to fresh
trade winds across a large portion of the tropical and subtropical
eastern Atlantic waters N of the ITCZ and W of 25W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy
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