[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260534
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
134 AM EDT Mon Mar 26 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000| UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...

A combination of strong surface high pressure ridging southward
from a high E of the Bahamas and relatively strong low pressure
over northern South America supports winds pulsing to gale force
near the coast of Colombia. The gale force winds will recur each
night during the evening and overnight hours through the end of
next week while this surface weather pattern persists. For more
details please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.
This information can also be found at the following website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

...GALE WARNING for the METEO-FRANCE areas...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds N to NE
winds are forecast to develop this evening for the following
areas: Portions of the AGADIR and TARFAYA zones adjacent to the
coast of Morocco, and NE CANARIAS over the Canary Islands. Winds
will become strong northerly from tonight through Mon night.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 08N12W to
04N17W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 01N30W to 03S42W.
Widely scattered moderate convection is from 00N-02N between
00W-13W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
along the coast of W Africa from 04N-08N between 10W-13W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 00N-06N
between 19W-25W. Scattered moderate convection is along the coast
of South America from 02N-02S between 48W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 26/0300 UTC a cold front is over N Florida from Daytona
Beach to Tallahassee moving ESE. Scattered showers are within 60
nm N of the front. Fair weather prevails across the remainder of
the basin as a 1021 mb surface high centered E of the Bahamas near
27N67W ridges westward across the Gulf. Mostly SE flow prevails
across the basin. Sea heights are highest, near 5 ft, in the NW
Gulf due to the longer fetch in this area. Abundant dry air
prevails as ridging at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere
extends over the Gulf. A larger and stronger high over the E coast
of the United States will move S behind the cold front and
produce more SE surface flow over the Gulf. Developing low pres
over the central plains states will tighten the pressure gradient
over the Gulf and cause winds to become fresh to strong on Tue.
The next cold front will enter the NW Gulf on Wed night. Surface
troughing is expected to develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each
day, then migrate W over the Bay of Campeche during the evening
and nighttime hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Undersea volcano Kick'em Jenny, north of Grenada near 12.18N
61.38W, is in a state of unrest. The government of Grenada advises
mariners to observe a 5 km or 3.1 nm exclusion zone around
Kick'em Jenny. Please refer to the web page, www.nadma.gd, for
additional information.

Relatively quiet conditions exist across the basin as mid to
upper-level ridging maintains a relatively dry and subsident
weather pattern over the basin. Trade winds are strongest over the
south-central waters N of the coast of Colombia. Winds are expected
to reach gale-force during the evening and overnight hours. Winds
will continue pulsing every night through Thu night/Fri morning.
Presently, gale is in effect, and ends 26/1200 UTC. See the
SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more details. Otherwise,
ridging extending southward from along the east coast of the
United States will maintain moderate to fresh NE to E winds over
the Caribbean basin through the first half of next week. Winds
will be fresh to strong in the Windward Passage.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front has entered the W Atlantic from 32N68W to Daytona
Florida near 29N81W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 29N
between 68W-71W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 60 nm of
the front. A stationary front is over the central Atlantic from
32N47W to 22N60W, then dissipating to the Virgin Islands near
18N65W. Scattered showers are observed within 60 nm of the front.
West of these fronts, surface high pressure centered near 28N67W
dominates the W Atlantic. Expansive surface high pressure also
dominates the central and eastern Atlantic Ocean, with a 1033 mb
high is centered over the Azores near 38N26W. This high is
producing moderate to fresh trade winds across a large portion of
the tropical and subtropical eastern Atlantic waters N of the ITCZ
and W of 25W.

The stationary front currently over the central Atlantic will
weaken and dissipate. The W Atlantic cold front will move E
through Mon in conjunction with developing low pres SE of New
England.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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