[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120523
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
123 AM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning...

A cold front will move into the western Atlantic Ocean by Monday
afternoon, along 31N77W 25N80W. Expect gale-force W-to-NW winds,
and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 9 feet, to the N of 28N W
of the cold front to 79W. The gale-force wind conditions will end
on Tuesday in the afternoon. Please read the latest Atlantic
Ocean High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC, for more details.

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

The current NW Gulf of Mexico cold front will move to the
position, 30N83W to 25N89W to 21N97W on Monday morning. Expect
NW-to-N gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 9 feet to
11 feet, from 22N to 24N W of 96W. The gale-force wind conditions
are forecast to last until the early morning hours of Tuesday.
Please read the latest Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W, to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W, to
02N30W, and 01N38W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are from 06N southward from 30W eastward.
rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W
eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

One surface trough extends from the Florida Panhandle to SE
Louisiana, to 26N95W in the Gulf of Mexico. A second surface
trough extends from Apalachee Bay, Florida to 24N90W in the south
central Gulf of Mexico. A cold front passes through south central
Louisiana to 27N97W at the Texas coast. This is the cold front
that is forecast to move through the Gulf of Mexico, and reach
central Florida by tomorrow morning. Broken multilayered clouds
have been moving across the Gulf of Mexico during the day, and now
cover the area that is to the NW of the line 27N82W 19N96W.
Isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally strong
rainshowers are south of 27N from 85W eastward, in the Straits of
Florida, and in the Atlantic Ocean to the west of the line that
passes through 32N69W, to the eastern side of Andros Island in the
Bahamas.

The current NW Gulf of Mexico cold front will move southeastward
across the entire basin through Monday, and across the Straits of
Florida on Monday evening. Brief gale-force winds are expected
behind the front in the far western Gulf on Monday, and in the SW
Gulf on Monday afternoon and night. Strong northerly winds
elsewhere in the wake of the front will diminish from the NW
through Monday night. A ridge will extend from NE Texas to the
Straits of Florida on Tuesday, then high pressure will become
centered in the NE Gulf from Thursday through Friday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the area.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 11/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.37 in Nassau
in the Bahamas, and 0.12 in Trinidad.

Fresh to strong trade winds will continue across the waters east
of 80W, except for near gale-force winds just to the north of the
A-B-C islands expected through Tuesday night. A cold front will
enter the NW Caribbean on Monday night. The front will reach from
central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on Tuesday, stall from
Hispaniola to Nicaragua on Tuesday night, and dissipate by
Thursday. High pressure will build southeastward from the Gulf of
Mexico into the NW Caribbean Sea beginning on Thursday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A central Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N39W to
31N42W. A stationary front continues from 31N42W to 28N50W to 26N60W.
The upper level trough that was in the SE corner of the Gulf of
Mexico 24 hours ago now is in the western Atlantic Ocean.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers cover the Atlantic Ocean from 26N northward between
55W and 71W.

A surface trough, that is supporting the thunderstorms that are to
the east of the NW Bahamas, will shift E of the area on Monday. A
cold front, entering the waters off NE Florida this afternoon,
will be preceded by and followed by near gale-to-gale force winds
N of 28N from Monday evening through Tuesday morning. The front
will reach from 30N65W to E Cuba on Tuesday, stalling from 26N65W
to E Cuba through Tuesday night. High pressure building from the
NW will cause the northern part of the front to begin moving E
once again on Wednesday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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