[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120143 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Sun Mar 11 2018

CORRECTED GALE WARNINGS

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning...

A cold front will move into the western Atlantic Ocean by Monday
night, along 31N77W 26N80W. Expect gale-force W-to-NW winds, and
sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet, to the N of 30N W of
the cold front to 79W. The gale-force wind conditions will end
on Tuesday night. Please read the latest Atlantic Ocean High
Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for
more details.

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

The current NW Gulf of Mexico cold front will move to the line
from 30N83W to 25N89W to 21N97W on Monday morning. Expect NW-to-N
gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 9 feet to 11
feet, from 22N to 24N W of 96W. The gale-force wind conditions
are forecast to last until the early morning hours of Tuesday.
Please read the latest Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W, to
the Equator along 36W, to 01S45W, to the Equator along 50W at the
coast of Brazil. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are from 08N southward from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Residual moisture, and isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are in the SE corner of the Gulf of Mexico. The upper
level wind flow is mostly westerly.

One surface trough extends from the Florida Panhandle to SE
Louisiana. A second surface trough is in the Texas coastal
waters.
A cold front is in the Texas coastal plains. This is the cold
front that is forecast to move through the Gulf of Mexico, and
reach central Florida by tomorrow morning, and clear the entire
Gulf of Mexico, and reach SE Cuba by Tuesday morning. Broken
multilayered clouds have been moving across the Gulf of Mexico
during the day, and now cover the area from 22N northward.

The Texas coastal plains cold front will move off the coast by
early this evening. It will move southeastward across the entire
basin through Mon, and across the Straits of Florida on Mon
evening. Brief gale force winds are expected behind the front
over the far western gulf on Mon, and in the SW gulf Mon
afternoon and night. Strong northerly winds elsewhere in the
wake of the front will diminish from the NW through Mon night. A
ridge will extend from NE Texas to the Straits of Florida on
Tue, then slide eastward while developing into a high center of
about 1025 mb over the NE Gulf by Thu, and shift slightly
southeastward on Fri. At that time, a ridge will extend from the
high center westward to NE Texas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the area.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 11/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.37 in Nassau
in the Bahamas, and 0.12 in Trinidad.

Fresh to strong trade winds will continue across the waters east
of 80W, except for near gale force winds just to the north of the
A-B-C islands expected through Tue night. A strong cold front
will enter the Yucatan channel and far NW Caribbean late Mon
afternoon or early evening, reach from central Cuba to the Gulf
of Honduras Tue, stall from Hispaniola to Nicaragua Tue night,
and dissipate by Thu. Strong high pres will build southeastward
from the Gulf of Mexico to over the NW Caribbean beginning on
Thu night. Strong NE winds are expected to develop to the lee of
Cuba and Windward Passage and vicinity waters Fri and Fri night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A central Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N42W to
28N49W. A stationary front continues from 28N49W to 26N60W.
The upper level trough that was in the SE corner of the Gulf of
Mexico 24 hours ago now is in the western Atlantic Ocean.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers
cover the Atlantic Ocean from 25N northward between 55W and 72W.

The area of rainshowers, that is associated with an upper level
trough, is capable of producing strong gusty winds and frequent
lightning as it moves eastward quickly through Monday, ahead of
the next cold front. The next cold front will emerge off the
Georgia and NE Florida coasts late tonight into early Mon. The
front will reach from near 31N79W to West Palm Beach early Mon
afternoon, from near 31N75W to NW Cuba Mon evening, from near
31N67W to 26N70W to eastern Cuba early on Tue before stalling
from near 27N65W to central Cuba Tue night. The cold front will
gradually weaken through Thu as high pres builds eastward over
the area. Minimal to strong gale force winds are expected over
some areas both ahead and behind the front Mon through early Tue
afternoon. In the wake of the front, relatively weak high pres
will build W to E along 27N through early Wed as yet another
strong cold front begins to advance across the NW waters of the
basin. This front will be preceded by fresh to strong southwest
winds and mostly strong W to NW winds to the N of 27N as it
quickly moves across the forecast waters to just east of the
basin early on Thu. High pres will build from W to E across the
central waters in the wake of the front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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