[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111659
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1259 PM EDT Sun Mar 11 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

A A cold front will emerge off the Georgia and NE Florida coasts
late tonight into early on Mon. The front will reach from near
31N79W to West Palm Beach early Mon afternoon, from near 31N75W to
NW Cuba Mon evening, from near 31N67W to 26N70W to eastern Cuba
early on Tue before stalling from near 27N65W to central Cuba Tue
night. The cold front will gradually weaken through Thu as high
pres builds eastward over the area. Minimal to strong gale force
winds are expected N of about 29N E and W of the front Mon through
Tue. Currently, the GFS computer model suggests 30-35 kt SW winds
ahead of the front, and 30-40 kt W-NW winds in the wake of the
front. Please see the latest Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast
product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more
details.

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front will move off the Texas coast this afternoon, then
race southeastward across the entire basin through Mon, and
across the Straits of Florida on Mon evening. A brief gale is
expected behind the front over the far west-central Gulf near
Tampico, Mexico on Mon, then across the SW Gulf near Veracruz,
Mexico late on Mon. Strong northerly winds will follow the front
elsewhere. Seas are forecast to build to 10-12 ft with the
strongest winds, particularly over the SW Gulf. Please see the
latest Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon enters the Atlantic Ocean near the Sierra Leone/
Liberia border, and continues to 04N20W. The ITCZ extends from
04N20W to 00N50W. No significant convection is noted at this time.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Currently, a weak ridge dominates most of the Gulf region while a
surface trough is noted over the SW Gulf. The weather pattern is
forecast to change this afternoon as a cold front moves off the
Texas coast. The cold front will race SE across the entire basin
through Mon, and across the Straits of Florida on Mon evening
followed by strong northerly winds and building seas. Minimal gale
conditions are also expected behind the front over the west-central
Gulf and SW Guf. Please, see Special Features Section for more
details. Sattelite imagery and lightning data show widespread
showers and tstms across the N Gulf states as deep moisture from
the Gulf interacts with a frontal boundary extending from Georgia
to Texas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The most recent scatterometer passes continue to show fresh to
strong NE-E winds across the east and central Caribbean, and
moderate to locally fresh E-SE winds over the western Caribbean.
An area of strong to near gale force winds is south of Hispaniola.
These winds are the result of the pressure gradient between the
Atlantic ridge, that now extends into the NE Caribbean, and
Colombian low. Buoy 42058 located near 15N75W is reporting seas of
13-14 ft. Fresh to strong trades will continue across the waters
east of 80W, except near gale force off the NW coast of Colombia
and Gulf of Venezuela tonight. Shallow moisture embedded in the
trade wind flow will move across the region producing isolated to
scattered passing showers. Patches of low level moisture are also
reaching Jamaica and the Caribbean plains of Nicaragua. A strong
cold front will enter the Yucatan channel and far NW Caribbean Mon
night, reach from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Tue, stall
from Hispaniola to Nicaragua Tue night, and dissipate by Thu.
Moderate to fresh northerly winds and building seas in the 5-7 ft
range are expected in the wake of the front over the NW Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The short-wave trough and the associated convective active is now
affecting mainly the central Bahamas. This activity is capable of
producing strong gusty winds and frequent lightning as it quickly
moves ENE. This convective activity is also merging with the
remnants of a frontal boundary analyzed as a trough on the 1200
UTC surface map. The trough extends 28N63W to 26N71W based on a
recent ASCAT pass that shows the wind shit associated with this
feature. Showers and tstms are noted near the trough axis. The
cold front now extends from 31N44W to 26N60W. Another cold front
is forecast to emerge off the Georgia and NE Florida coasts late
tonight into early on Mon. Minimal to strong gale force winds are
expected on either side of the front. Please, see Special
Features section for more details. The remainder of the Atlantic
Ocean is under the influence of a ridge with three high pressure
centers of 1025 mb. Long period NW swell continues to affect the
waters N of 20N E of 30W with sea heights of 9-13 ft.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
GR
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