[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111200
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Mar 11 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

A cold front will emerge off the SE United States coast late
tonight and move SE to extend from 31N75W to NW Cuba Mon night
and then stalling from 27N65W to central Cuba Tue night before
weakening through the middle of the week. Forecast models have
been trending stronger with the winds associated with this front
over the waters N of 28N, and gale-force winds are now expected
N of 28N both ahead of, and behind the cold front Mon night and
Tue. Seas will peak near 14 ft under the gale conditions. Please
see the latest Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast product under
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details.

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

Gale force winds that were likely occurring earlier this morning
over the Gulf of Venezuela and near the coast of Colombia N of
11N are expected to decrease below gale force by 1200 UTC this
morning. Although gale-force winds are not expected at these
locations for the next several days, near-gale force winds are
expected both tonight and Monday night, with seas peaking near
13 ft. Please see the latest Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast
product under AWIPS/WMO headers /FZNT02 KNHC, for more details.

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front will move off the Texas coast this afternoon, then
move SE across the entire basin through Mon, and across the
Straits of Florida on Mon evening. A brief gale is expected
behind the front over the far west-central Gulf Mon, then across
the SW Gulf late Mon. Seas are forecast to build to 10-11 ft with
the strongest winds. Please see the latest Atlantic Ocean High
Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC,
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to
00N50W. No significant convection at this time.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A complex of thunderstorms associated with a short-wave trough
that was affecting the Gulf region has moved E of the area. A
cold front will move off the Texas coast this afternoon, then move
SE across the entire basin through Mon, and across the Straits of
Florida on Mon evening. A brief gale is expected behind the front
over the far west-central Gulf Mon, then across the SW Gulf late
Mon. Strong northerly winds elsewhere in the wake of the front
will diminish from the NW through Mon night. Seas will peak near
11 ft over the SW Gulf in association with the gale force winds.
Seas of 8 to 10 ft will cover much of the central and western Gulf
after the frontal passage, before winds diminish. A ridge will
extend from NE Texas to the Straits of Florida on Tue, and shift
NE Wed through Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The most recent scatterometer passes continue to show fresh to
strong winds across the east and central Caribbean, with near
gale force winds just E of the ABC Islands. Fresh to strong
trades will continue across the waters east of 80W, except minimal
gale force early this morning off the NW coast of Colombia and
Gulf of Venezuela. The ridge north of the region helping to
support the stronger winds will shift east through early this week
allowing for winds to diminish somewhat over the central
Caribbean. The tail end of a thunderstorm complex affected western
Cuba during the overnight hours, and now most of the convective
activity is over the Bahamas. Patches of low level moisture
embedded in the trade wind flow are crossing the Lesser Antilles.
Similar cloudiness is reaching the Caribbean plains of Nicaragua.
A cold front will enter the Yucatan channel and far NW Caribbean
late Mon, reach from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Tue,
stall from Hispaniola to Nicaragua Tue night, and dissipate by
Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The short-wave trough and the associated convective active is now
affecting the NW and central Bahamas moving eastward. Winds and
seas could be higher near the tstms. A cold front extends from
31N48W to 24N63W where it becomes stationary to near Haiti. This
front will weaken today. Remnants of the front will lift back to
the N this afternoon and tonight ahead of another cold front that
will emerge off the NE Florida coast late tonight. This cold front
will extend from near 31N75W to northwest Cuba Mon night, stall
from 27N65W to central Cuba Tue night and gradually weaken through
Thu as high pres builds eastward over the area. Gale force winds
are expected N of 29N just E of this front Mon night and Tue.
Forecast models are also now indicating that gale force winds may
occur briefly after the frontal passage N of 28N-29N Mon night.
This may require an expansion of that gale warning. The remainder
of the Atlantic Ocean is under the influence of a ridge with
three high pressure centers of 1024 mb. Long period NW swell
continues to affect the waters N of 20N E of 30W with sea heights
of 9-13 ft.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
GR
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