[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071205
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST Wed Mar 7 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Storm Warning: DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FROM
31N42W TO 23N54W. N OF 30N BETWEEN 48W AND 56W W WINDS
30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 23 TO 26 FT.

12-HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 31N75W TO 26.5N80W. N OF 28N
WITHIN 90 NM E OF FRONT SW WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 16 FT.

Please read the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast under the
AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2, and under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC for
more details.

Large northerly swell propagating southward through the
northeastern Caribbean Sea passages, and through the tropical
waters east of the Lesser Antilles, will subside gradually
through the remainder of this week. Fresh to strong trades will
prevail across the south-central Caribbean through the upcoming
weekend. Please read the Offshore Waters Forecast, under the AWIPS
header MIAOFFNT3, and under the WMO header FZNT23 KNHC, for more
details.

A surface trough is along 16N55W 15N59W, across the island of
Martinique, to 14N62W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers are from 10N to 15N between 56W and
70W, near Venezuela, Trinidad and Tobago, Barbados, and the other
islands in the SE corner of the Caribbean Sea.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Liberia
near 07N11W, to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W, to 01N30W,
to the Equator along 40W, to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers
from 06N southward from 47W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front from the Florida Big Bend to near Tampico Mexico
will move south of the area on tonight. High pres will build in
the wake of the front. The next cold front will move into the
northern waters late Sat night, reaching the far southeast waters
late Sun night. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are from 28N southward from 93W
westward, and from 28N northward from 93W eastward.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is along 16N55W 15N59W, across the island of
Martinique, to 14N62W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers are from 10N to 15N between 56W and
70W, near Venezuela, Trinidad and Tobago, Barbados, and the other
islands in the SE corner of the Caribbean Sea.

Large northerly swell propagating south through the northeastern
Caribbean passages, and through the tropical waters east of the
Lesser Antilles, will gradually subside through the remainder of
this week. Fresh to strong trades will prevail across the south-
central Caribbean through the upcoming weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details about
the ongoing event of gale-force winds and storm-force winds, for
the western and central Atlantic Ocean. Please read the Atlantic
Ocean High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2, and
under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

A cold front passes through 32N37W to 20N50W, to 17N57W. The cold
front is dissipating from 17N57W, beyond the island of Dominica,
into the Caribbean Sea. Rainshowers are possible within 180 nm to
240 nm on either side of the line that passes through 32N29W to
24N42W to 17N54W to 15N60W.

A cold front curves through 32N52W to 27N60W and 28N65W.
rainshowers are possible in scattered-to-broken low level clouds,
that are from 20N northward between 47W and 80W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean, from 10N
northward to the east of the cold front. A 1023 mb high pressure
center is near 24N31W.

The current large and widespread northerly swell will diminish by
the end of the week. A cold front will move off Northeast Florida
early this morning, with near gale force to minimal gale
conditions developing north of 28N east of the front today. The
front will reach from Bermuda to the Central Cuba on Thu morning,
and reach from 27N65W to Hispaniola on Fri morning. A second cold
front will move east across the waters north of the Bahamas on
Thu, and merge with the first cold front across the tropical
waters north of Puerto Rico late Fri. A third cold front will move
into the NW waters this weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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