[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070557
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1257 AM EST Wed Mar 7 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning

A cold front extends from 31N46W to 25N60W. A dissipating frontal
boundary extends from that point to 28N67W. Latest scatterometer
data depicts gale-force westerly winds north of 30N between 50W-
60W. Seas in this area will range between 25-29 ft. These
conditions are expected to continue through late Wednesday. Please
read the Atlantic High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS header
MIAHSFAT2, and under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

Another area of gale-force winds is expected to develop by
Wednesday afternoon over the west Atlantic mainly north of 28N
and within 120 nm east of a front that will extend at that time
from 31N75W to 27N80W. Seas in this area will range between 13-16
ft. These conditions will continue through late Wednesday. Please
read the Atlantic High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS header
MIAHSFAT2, and under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coast of Africa near 06N10W to
03N14W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 02N28W to 03S40W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-05N between 10W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the northern half of the basin 30N85W
to 24N97W. Abundant cloudiness and scattered showers accompany
this frontal boundary affecting the area north of 26N. Surface
ridging prevails north and south of the front. The front will
reach from northern Florida to the Bay of Campeche at sunrise
today, then continue moving southeast across the basin through the
day. Strong to near gale northerly winds across the northwest
Gulf waters will prevail today, and then subside by Thursday as
the front moves away and the pressure gradient weakens. Southerly
return flow will set up across the northwest Gulf on Thursday
night, and spread eastward across the entire Gulf by late Friday,
ahead of the next cold front expected to move into the northern
waters by late Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The remnants of a frontal boundary were analyzed as a surface
trough that extends over the Leeward Islands along 16N and east
of 63W. Scattered showers are noted near this boundary affecting
the islands and adjacent waters. Surface ridging prevails across
the remainder of the basin. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to
moderate trades across most of the area except south of 12N
between 73W-77W where moderate to fresh winds prevail. Large
northerly swell propagating southward through the northern
Caribbean Sea passages, and through the tropical waters to the
east of the Lesser Antilles, will subside gradually this week.
The surface pressure gradient will tighten during the next few
days, with strong trade winds forecast across the south-central
Caribbean through the upcoming weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for more details
about the ongoing event of gale-force winds over the central
portion of the basin and the upcoming gale-wind event over the
western Atlantic.

High pressure prevails across the western Atlantic centered near
27N73W. A cold front extends from 31N46W to 25N60W. A dissipating frontal
boundary extends from that point to 28N67W. To the east, another
frontal boundary was analyzed extending from 31N29W to 16N55W. A
surface trough continues from that point to 16N61W. Minimal
convection is observed with these fronts. Surface anticyclonic
flow covers the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1021 mb high
centered near 23N31W. Large northerly swell will continue across
the entire exposed waters through today. Strong southerly winds
have developed north of the Bahamas ahead of a cold front
currently approaching from the west. This front will move offshore
into the west Atlantic today with gale conditions developing
north of 30N and east of the front. The front will reach from
Bermuda to the central Cuba by Thursday morning, and from 27N65W
to Hispaniola by Friday morning. A second cold front will move
eastward, across the waters north of the Bahamas on Thursday, and
merge with the first cold front across the tropical waters north
of Puerto Rico late on Friday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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