[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

Tue Mar 6 12:00:38 CST 2018

AXNT20 KNHC 061800
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Tue Mar 6 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Storm Warning: DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FROM 31N38W
TO 16N62W. A cold front curves through 32N52W to 27N60W and
28N65W. WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 31N62W TO 31N53W TO
28N58W TO 31N62W SW TO W WINDS 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 25 TO 35 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 31N65W TO 31N50W TO
27N58W TO 31N65W SW TO W WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 TO 28 FT.

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: 24-HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM
31N77W TO 28N81W. FROM 30N TO 31N WITHIN 120 NM E OF FRONT SW
WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

Please read the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast under the
AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2, and under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC for
more details.

Large northerly swell, propagating southward through the northern
Caribbean Sea passages, and through the tropical waters to the
east of the Lesser Antilles, will subside gradually this week.
Fresh trades are observed across the eastern Caribbean Sea, with
fresh to locally strong trades across the south-central Caribbean
Sea waters. The surface pressure gradient will tighten during the
next few days, with strong trade winds forecast across the south-
central Caribbean Sea through the upcoming weekend.
Please read the Offshore Waters Forecast, under the AWIPS header
MIAOFFNT3, and under the WMO header FZNT23 KNHC, for more details.

A dissipating cold front is along 17N57W, across the island of
Dominica, to 14N67W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are from 10N to 15N between 56W and 69W, near
Venezuela, Trinidad and Tobago, Barbados, and the other islands in
the SE corner of the Caribbean Sea. Five inches of rain were
reported in Trinidad, during the 24 hours that ended at 05 March/
1200 UTC, per the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC. 24-hour rainfall totals, for the
period ending at 06/1200 UTC: 0.22 in Trinidad, and 0.12 in San
Juan in Puerto Rico.

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. The OUTLOOK, for the 24
hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 07/1200 UTC,
consists of: the threat of SW near gale or gale in : IRVING,
MADEIRA, and METEOR.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W to
the Equator along 29W, to 02S36W, and 02S42W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers from 02N southward
between 35W and 37W, and from 09N southward between 49W and 54W.
rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 05N southward from 30W
eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front cuts through SE Louisiana, the NW Gulf of Mexico, to
the Deep South of Texas, and beyond into northern Mexico. Broken
to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers cover the Gulf waters from 25N northward.
Upper level westerly wind flow is apparent in water vapor imagery.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 19N
northward between 72W and 88W, including parts of the NW
Caribbean Sea, the Atlantic Ocean and the Bahamas, the eastern
Gulf of Mexico, and Florida. A 1019 mb high pressure center is
near 27N79W between Florida and the NW Bahamas.

The current NW Gulf cold front will reach from the Florida
Panhandle to northeast Mexico this evening, reach from Central
Florida to the Bay of Campeche at sunrise on Wednesday, and move
south of the area on Wednesday night. Strong northerly winds
across the NW Gulf waters tonight will increase to near gale
force along the Mexican coast on Wednesday, and then subside on
Thursday. Southerly return flow will set up across the NW Gulf
on Thursday night, and spread eastward across the entire Gulf by
late Friday night, ahead of the next cold front moving into the
northern waters late on Saturday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A dissipating cold front is along 17N57W, across the island of
Dominica, to 14N67W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are from 10N to 15N between 56W and 69W, near
Venezuela, Trinidad and Tobago, Barbados, and the other islands in
the SE corner of the Caribbean Sea. Five inches of rain were
reported in Trinidad, during the 24 hours that ended at 05 March/
1200 UTC, per the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC. 24-hour rainfall totals, for the
period ending at 06/1200 UTC: 0.22 in Trinidad, and 0.12 in San
Juan in Puerto Rico.

Large northerly swell, propagating southward through the northern
Caribbean Sea passages, and through the tropical waters to the
east of the Lesser Antilles, will subside gradually this week.
Fresh trades are observed across the eastern Caribbean Sea, with
fresh to locally strong trades across the south-central Caribbean
Sea waters. The surface pressure gradient will tighten during the
next few days, with strong trade winds forecast across the south-
central Caribbean Sea through the upcoming weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details about
the ongoing event of gale-force winds and storm-force winds, for
the western and central Atlantic Ocean. Please read the Atlantic
Ocean High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2, and
under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

A cold front passes through 32N37W to 20N50W, to 17N57W. The cold
front is dissipating from 17N57W, beyond the island of Dominica,
into the Caribbean Sea. Rainshowers are possible within 180 nm to
240 nm on either side of the line that passes through 32N29W to
24N42W to 17N54W to 15N60W.

A cold front curves through 32N52W to 27N60W and 28N65W.
rainshowers are possible in scattered-to-broken low level clouds,
that are from 20N northward between 47W and 80W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean, from 10N
northward to the east of the cold front. A 1023 mb high pressure
center is near 24N31W.

Large northerly swell will continue across the entire exposed
waters through mid-week. Strong southerly winds will develop north
of the Bahamas this evening, ahead of a cold front moving off
northeast Florida late tonight, with minimal gale conditions
developing north of 30N east of the front on Wednesday. The front
will reach from Bermuda to the central Cuba on Thursday morning,
and reach from 27N65W to Hispaniola on Friday morning. A second
cold front will move eastward, across the waters north of the
Bahamas on Thursday, and merge with the first cold front across
the tropical waters north of Puerto Rico late on Friday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net