[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241206
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
706 AM EST Wed Jan 24 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The combination of high pressure in
the central Atlantic Ocean, and lower surface pressures in northern
Colombia will continue to bring pulses of strong to minimal gale
force NE to E winds along and near the coast of Colombia during
the overnight hours through Friday, and possibly for more time,
into the upcoming weekend. Sea heights are expected to be in the
range of 9 feet to 14 feet with the winds. Please read the latest
NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from near Naples
Florida southwestward to the far SE gulf waters near 23N85W and
to 23N89W where it becomes stationary to 22N9.5W and to the
central Bay of Campeche near 20N94W and to just N of the coast of
Mexico at Coatzacoalcos. An area of NW 25-35 kt gale force winds
is behind the front S of 21N W of 95W, with seas of 8-11 ft. The
overnight Ascat pass nicely captured these gale force winds. With
the very tight pressure gradient behind the front along the coast
of Mexico S of 21N not expected to slacken any time soon, these
conditions will remain continue into Thu before diminishing to N
to Ne fresh winds. Please read the the latest NHC High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis emerges of the coast of Liberia, Africa
near 06N10W, and extends to near 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from
03N18W, to the Equator along 29W, to 01S32W. Scattered moderate
convection is N of the ITCZ axis within 60 nm of line from 02N31W
to 03N35W to 04N39W. Similar convection is within 30 nm of line
from 02N27W to 02N31W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
cold front and associated gale-force northerly winds.

A cold front is analyzed from near Naples Florida southwestward
to the far SE gulf waters near 23N85W and to 23N89W where it
becomes stationary to 22N9.5W and to the central Bay of Campeche
near 20N94W and to just N of the coast of Mexico at Coatzacoalcos.
A pre-frontal trough is within 75 nm to its SE and E of western
Cuba. The earlier deep convection noted with the trough has
dissipated during the overnight hours, and only isolated showers
are seen along and SE of the trough. Scattered moderate convection
is over the the Bay just N of the coast Mexico between 91W and
93W and N to 20.5N. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are seen from 20N to 22N between 94W and 96W. Areas of rain along
with scattered showers are present over the NW and N central
waters to the NW of a line from 30N87W to 25N92W to Tampico.

The cold front will move SE of the Gulf waters during the early
morning hours of today as a large area of high pressure builds
in over the area through the end of the week. A NW to SE
orientated surface trough will set up across the far SW waters
and linger through late Fri night or early Sat. It will then
lift back to the N as a warm front with a surface low expected to
developing along it near 27N90W on Saturday night. The newly
formed surface low will move E on Sunday, reaching the Florida Big
Bend on Sunday night, while dragging a cold front across the
Central Gulf waters.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
gale-force winds for the area that is off the coast of Colombia.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers Central America from Panama
to Guatemala. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are to the west of the line that runs from 10N82W in
the SW corner of the area, to 15N77W, to 19N80W and 20N86W.

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the rest of the
area.

Strong to minimal gale force trade winds are forecast along the
the NW coast of Colombia during the overnight hours, from now
through Sunday night. A cold front will move slowly SE across the
NW Caribbean on Wednesday afternoon, and then stall and gradually
dissipate from Central Cuba to Belize through Friday.
Strengthening high pressure in the wake of the front will produce
fresh to strong NE winds across the NW Caribbean by late Thursday,
with these conditions spreading E across the NE Caribbean from
Friday night through Saturday. Moderate to fresh trades will
continue across the tropical Atlantic Ocean waters E of the
Windwards through Friday. Fresh to strong NE winds are forecast
from Friday night through Sunday night. Conditions will improve
across the Caribbean from the NW on Sunday.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 32N76W southwestward to inland S Florida
near West Palm Beach, and continues to near Naples and to the far
SE Gulf of Mexico. A pre-frontal trough is just to the SE of the
cold front. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are along the
trough E of 75W.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow, and possible rainshowers,
cover the area that is from 21N northward between 20W and 40W. A
surface trough is along 31N36W 26N37W 21N38W.

A central Atlantic Ocean upper level trough is along 28N50W
14N55W. A second surface trough is along 52W/53W from 21N to 29N.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 21N to 29N between 46W and 52W.

The cold front, that currently is moving off the NE Florida
coast, will reach a position from near 31N75W to the Straits of
Florida on Wednesday evening, reach from Bermuda to Central Cuba
on Thursday evening, and stall E to W along 23N on Fri night
through Saturday night. The W part of the front will lift
northward over the Straits of Florida on Sun night. Strengthening
high pressure in the wake of this front will produce strong to
near gale force NE-E winds to the W of the front from Thursday
through Saturday, with conditions improving from the N on Sunday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT/Aguirre
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