[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240548
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1248 AM EST Wed Jan 24 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The combination of high pressure in
the central Atlantic Ocean, and lower surface pressures in northern
Colombia will continue to bring pulses of strong to minimal gale
force NE to E winds along and near the coast of Colombia from the
overnight hours of today, Wednesday, through Thursday night, and
possibly for more time, into the upcoming weekend. Sea heights are
expected to be in the range of 9 feet to 14 feet with the winds.
Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT FROM 27N82W
TO 23N88W THEN STATIONARY TO 18N95W. S OF LINE FROM 21N96W TO
18.5N94W NW WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT. The gale-force winds
will continue for much of the next 24 hours. Please read the the
latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Liberia near
06N10W to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W, to the Equator
along 29W, to 01S32W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are from 07N southward from 53W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
cold front and the gale-force winds that are associated with it.

A cold front passes through 32N80W, across NE Florida, into the
south central Gulf of Mexico. The front becomes stationary in the
south central sections of the Gulf of Mexico, and it curves to
22N93W, into the northern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec,
and then to 23N100W in Mexico. A surface trough is to the east of
the cold front, within 45 nm to the east of the front at the
northern end of the front, and within 210 nm to the east of the
front at its southern end. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong in the NW part of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, in
Mexico between Guatemala and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, and from
20N to 21N between 94W and 96W. rainshowers are possible elsewhere
in the broken to overcast multilayered clouds.

The cold front will move SE of the Gulf waters during the early
morning hours of today, leaving a NW-to-SE orientated trough
across the far SW waters to meander through early Saturday, then
lift N as a warm front with a surface low developing along the
front near 27N90W on Saturday night. The newly formed surface low
will move E on Sunday, reaching the Florida Big Bend on Sunday
night, while dragging a cold front across the Central Gulf waters.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
gale-force winds for the area that is off the coast of Colombia.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers Central America from Panama
to Guatemala. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are to the west of the line that runs from 10N82W in
the SW corner of the area, to 15N77W, to 19N80W and 20N86W.

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the rest of the
area.

Strong to minimal gale force trade winds are forecast along the
the NW coast of Colombia during the overnight hours, from now
through Sunday night. A cold front will move slowly SE across the
NW Caribbean on Wednesday afternoon, and then stall and gradually
dissipate from Central Cuba to Belize through Friday.
Strengthening high pressure in the wake of the front will produce
fresh to strong NE winds across the NW Caribbean by late Thursday,
with these conditions spreading E across the NE Caribbean from
Friday night through Saturday. Moderate to fresh trades will
continue across the tropical Atlantic Ocean waters E of the
Windwards through Friday. Fresh to strong NE winds are forecast
from Friday night through Sunday night. Conditions will improve
across the Caribbean from the NW on Sunday.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N80W, across NE Florida, into the
south central Gulf of Mexico. The front becomes stationary in the
south central sections of the Gulf of Mexico, and it curves to
22N93W, into the northern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec,
and then to 23N100W in Mexico. A surface trough is to the east of
the cold front, within 45 nm to the east of the front at the
northern end of the front, and within 210 nm to the east of the
front at its southern end. Rainshowers are possible to the NW of
the line that passes through 32N60W to 27N70W, to 23N80W.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow, and possible rainshowers,
cover the area that is from 21N northward between 20W and 40W. A
surface trough is along 31N36W 26N37W 21N38W.

A central Atlantic Ocean upper level trough is along 28N50W
14N55W. A second surface trough is along 52W/53W from 21N to 29N.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 21N to 29N between 46W and 52W.

The cold front, that currently is moving off the NE Florida
coast, will reach a position from 31N75W to the Straits of Florida
on Wednesday evening, reach from Bermuda to Central Cuba on
Thursday evening, and stall E to W along 23N on Friday night
through Saturday night. The W part of the front will lift N across
the Straits of Florida on Sunday night. Strengthening high
pressure in the wake of this front will produce strong to near
gale force NE-E winds to the W of the front from Thursday through
Saturday, with conditions improving from the N on Sunday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
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