[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211205
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Broad strong high pressure extending from the western Atlantic
into the Gulf of Mexico is creating a gradient tight enough to
support winds to gale force off the coast of Colombia through
later this morning. However, strong to near gale-force winds will
remain through Monday. See the latest NHC High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 06N11W and
continues to 04N20W. The ITCZ begins near 04N20W and extends to
03N37W to 0N50W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm N
of the ITCZ and within 210 nm S of it.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Ridging extends across the SW N Atlantic, across Florida and into
the Gulf. Fresh southeast return flow is observed over the
northwest Gulf between the ridge and lower pressure over the
central Plains. Fresh easterlies are also noted over the Straits
of Florida and Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere moderate east to
southeast winds persist across the northern Gulf, with lighter
flow over the southwest Gulf. A mid-level short-wave trough over
the SE CONUS extending across the E Gulf and ridging over the
Caribbean continue to support diffluent flow over the NW Caribbean
and into portions of the SE Gulf. This environment aloft along
with shallow moisture is supporting isolated showers in the
Yucatan channel and Florida Straits. Patch fog is being reported
off the central coast of Louisiana, but otherwise visibility
remains good. The moderate to fresh SE winds will continue across
the western Gulf through this evening ahead of a cold front moving
southeast off the Texas coast around sunrise on Mon. The cold
front will extend from the mouth of the Mississippi to Veracruz
Mexico late Mon, and then stall from southwest Florida to near
Veracruz Mexico on Tue night. Remnants of the front will lift N on
Wed and Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across the
northwest Caribbean, related to divergence aloft at the base a
sharp upper trough extending from the SE CONUS into the E Gulf.
Fresh to near gale-force trade winds are noted in latest
scatterometer data and buoy observations over much of the central
Caribbean, lee of Cuba and Windward Passage with the strongest
winds being along the coast of Colombia. Seas are reaching 10 to
14 ft over the south central Caribbean with highest seas off
Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades are noted in the eastern
Caribbean and east of the Windward and Leeward Islands. Persistent
ridging north of the area will allow strong to near gale force
trades to pulse along the northwest coast of Colombia through Thu
night. Strong east winds are forecast across the Central Caribbean
waters on Sun, diminishing slightly on Mon as the ridge weakens.
Moderate to fresh trades will continue across the tropical Atlc
waters E of the Windwards through Thu night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Ridging extends along roughly 30N, anchored by a 1026 mb high
pressure area centered near 30N68W. Divergence aloft on the east
side of an upper trough over the E Gulf of Mexico is supporting a
few showers off the Florida coast and across the northern and
central Bahamas. A cold front reaches from 30N41W to 21N62W. A
recent scatterometer pass showed fresh trade winds across the
Turks/Caicos and southern Bahamas, along the dissipating
stationary front trailing the end of the cold front. Scattered
showers are noted N of 22N between 33W and 46W. Farther east,
1035 mb high pressure is centered SW of Portugal, with an
associated ridge extending over the region north of 20N,
supporting fresh to strong NE winds off the coast of North Africa
between the Canary Islands and Cabo Verde. Farther south, moderate
to fresh trade persist across the deep tropics. The High pressure
will shift east to just southwest of Bermuda through Mon, then
shift north of Bermuda Mon night allowing a cold front to move off
the northeast Florida coast Tue morning. The cold front will
reach from near Bermuda to Straits of Florida Wed night and from
27N65W to Central Cuba on Thu night. Strengthening high pres in
the wake of the front will support strong NE wind W of 73W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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