[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210543
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1243 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Broad strong high pressure extending from the western Atlantic
into the Gulf of Mexico is creating a gradient tight enough to
support winds to gale force off the coast of Colombia through
tonight. The gale force winds will diminish early Sunday, but
remain strong to near gale-force through Monday. See the latest
NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 08N13W and
continues to 04N20W. The ITCZ begins near 04N20W and extends to
00N35W and terminates near 00N48W. No significant convection is
observed.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Ridging extends across the western Atlantic 30N, across northern
Florida and into the Deep South States. Fresh southeast return
flow is observed over the northwest Gulf between the ridge and
lower pressure over the central Plains. Fresh easterlies are also
noted over the Straits of Florida and Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere
moderate east to southeast winds persist across the northern Gulf,
with lighter flow over the southwest Gulf. A mid to upper level
trough is digging eastward across the lower Mississippi Valley,
supporting showers over the eastern Gulf and a surface trough from
the southeast Gulf through northeast Florida. Patch fog is being
reported off the central coast of Louisiana, but otherwise
visibility remains good. The moderate to fresh SE winds will
continue across the western Gulf through this evening ahead of a
cold front moving southeast off the Texas coast around sunrise on
Mon. The cold front will extend from the mouth of the Mississippi
to Veracruz Mexico late Mon, and then stall from southwest Florida
to near Veracruz Mexico on Tue night. Remnants of the front will
lift N on Wed and Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across the
northwest Caribbean, related to divergence aloft at the base a
sharp upper trough extending from the northeast Gulf of Mexico to
the Yucatan peninsula. Elsewhere, in addition to the gale force
winds mentioned in the Special Feature section off Colombia, fresh
to strong trade winds are noted in latest scatterometer data and
buoy observations over much of the central Caribbean, lee of Cuba
and Windward Passage. Seas are reaching 9 to 11 ft over the south
central Caribbean with highest seas off Colombia. Moderate to
fresh trades and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted in the eastern Caribbean
and east of the Windward and Leeward Islands. Persistent ridging
north of the area will allow strong to near gale force trades
to pulse along the northwest coast of Colombia through Thu night.
Strong east winds are forecast across the Central Caribbean
waters on Sun, diminishing slightly on Mon as the ridge weakens.
Moderate to fresh trades will continue across the tropical Atlc
waters E of the Windwards through Thu night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Ridging extends along roughly 30N, anchored by a 1026 mb high
pressure area centered near 30N70W. Divergence aloft on the east
side of an upper trough over the Gulf of Mexico is supporting a
few showers off the Florida coast and northern Bahamas. A cold
front reaches from 31N43W to 21N65W. A recent scatterometer pass
showed fresh trade winds across the Turks/Caicos and southern
Bahamas, along the dissipating stationary front trailing the end
of the cold front. A few showers are noted within 210 nm east of
the front north of 25N. Farther east, 1035 mb high pressure is
centered off Portugal, with an associated ridge extending over the
region north of 20N, supporting fresh to strong NE winds off the
coast of North Africa between the Canary Islands and Cabo Verde.
Farther south, moderate to fresh trade persist across the deep
tropics. The High pressure will shift east to just southwest of
Bermuda through Mon, then shift north of Bermuda Mon night
allowing a cold front to move off the northeast Florida coast Tue
morning. The cold front will reach from near Bermuda to Straits of
Florida Wed night and from 27N65W to Central Cuba on Thu night.
Strengthening high pres in the wake of the front will support
strong NE wind W of 73W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Christensen
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