[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141656
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1156 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gale Warning in the Caribbean Sea...

The cold front extending from eastern Cuba to west of Jamaica
near 18N79W to near 10N82W in the SW Caribbean has become a
stationary front at 1500 UTC. Strong N winds are expected W of the
front through tonight. Winds will be gale force along the coast
of Nicaragua until this afternoon. The most recent scatterometer
pass confirmed the presence of strong to minimal gale force winds
behind the front, particularly between 12N-16N. Please see the
latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...THE MONSOON TROUGH/THE ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the Ghana/Cote
D'Ivoire boundary along the west coast of Africa, and continues
to 05N15W to 03N21W. The ITCZ extends from 03N21W to 01N30W to
01N40W to the Equator at 48W into NE Brazil. No significant
convection is noted.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1042 mb over the eastern United States extend a
ridge across the Gulf region. A 1035 mb high has developed over
eastern Mexico between Tampico and Tuxpan. Cold air stratocumulus
clouds cover much of the Gulf region while persistent low clouds
are bankep up against the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico.
Under the influence of the ridge, mainly moderate to fresh
northerly winds are noted over the eastern half of the Gulf with
gentle to moderate N-NE winds across the western half of the area.
Seas are generally in the 4-6 ft range, with the exception of 6-8
ft over the SE waters based on altimeter data. The ridge will
slowly move eastward through Mon night. The next cold front is
forecast to enter the NW Gulf Tue afternoon, reach from the
Florida panhandle to near 26N91W and to just N of Tampico Tue
evening and move to just SE of the area early on Wednesday.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

The cold front over the Caribbean Sea has become stationary, and
now extends from eastern Cuba to west of Jamaica near 18N79W to
near 10N82W in the SW Caribbean. Please, see SPECIAL FEATURES
section for more details about this front. Cold air stratocumulus
clouds from the Gulf of Mexico are moving across western Cuba and
the NW Caribbean. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are along
the frontal boundary. Part of this convective activity is
affecting eastern Cuba and Jamaica. A surface trough is just ahead
of the front and extends from 18N78W to 10N77W. An area of
cloudiness with embedded showers and tstms is associated with
trough covering mainly the area 14N-18N between 76W and the
front. Moderate to locally fresh trades are noted across the
remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean, with the exception
of fresh to strong winds near the coast of Colombia. Strong
winds will continue to pulse near the NW Colombia coast each
night. Large swell will maintain seas above 8 ft in the tropical
Atlantic waters through Tue.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated to scattered passing showers are expected across the
island over the next couple of days under the influence of a
ridge.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 1500 UTC, a stationary front extends from 31N72W across the
central Bahamas and eastern Cuba. A wide band of cloudiness with
scattered showers and isolated tstms is associated with the front.
Part of this activity is affecting the SE Bahamas, and Turks and
Caicos Islands. Cold air stratocumulus clouds follow the frontal
boundary. The front will remain nearly stationary on Mon. A second
cold front will quickly sweep across the NW waters tonight and
Mon and merge with the main front on Mon night. A large area of
cloudiness with embedded showers and tstms is over the central
Atlantic, and covers mainly the waters from 20N-28N between 50W-
60W. This convective activity is related to a surface trough,
reflection of an upper-level low. The pressure gradient between
this trough and strong high pressure to the N is producing strong
to near gale force near the northern end of the trough that
extends from 26N56W to 21N58W. The same ASCAST pass that shows
these strong winds also indicates the wind shift associated with
the trough. The trough will move westward, and a weak low is
forecast by the computer models to develop along the trough axis
on Monday. The remainder of the Atlantic Ocean is under the
influence of a strong 1043 mb high pressure located near 39N41W.
This system will shift eastward over the next 24 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
GR
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