[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141201
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
701 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gale Warning in the Caribbean Sea...

A cold front extends from eastern Cuba to 18N80W to the SW
Caribbean near 11N83W. The front will push slowly SE then stall
from E Cuba to western Panama tonight. Strong N winds are expected
W of the front today and tonight. Winds will be minimal gale force
along the coast of Nicaragua until this afternoon. Seas are
forecast to build to 10-12 ft within these winds. The most recent
scatterometer pass confirmed the presence of strong to minimal
gale force winds behind the front, particularly between 12N-16N.
Please see the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...THE MONSOON TROUGH/THE ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through southern/coastal sections of
Ghana, the Ivory Coast, and beyond 05N09W in Liberia, to 04N16W
and 03N21W. The ITCZ continues from 03N21W to 01N27W, to the
Equator along 32W, and along the Equator to 39W. Precipitation:
scattered strong rainshowers from 05N to 07N between 36W and 40W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere from
08N southward from 56W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends across the SE CONUS into the Gulf of
Mexico. Cold air stratocumulus clouds cover much of the Gulf
region. Reinforcing cold air is moving across the eastern half of
the Gulf in the wake of a secondary front currently located over
the NW Bahamas and western Cuba. The ridge will slowly migrate E
through Mon night. Fresh to locally strong N winds will become
moderate to fresh NE to E winds over the Gulf Mon and Tue. Another
cold front will cross the Gulf Tue night through Wed night. Strong
winds behind the front will become moderate to fresh by Thu night.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from eastern Cuba to 18N80W to the SW
Caribbean near 11N83W. Please, see SPECIAL FEATURES section for
more details about the winds and the sea heights to be associated
with the cold front. Cold air stratocumulus clouds are moving from
the Gulf of Mexico into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.
A surface trough is ahead of the front, and extends along 77W/78W
from 12N, crossing the western part of Jamaica, toward E Cuba.
Scattered showers and isolated tstms are associated with this
trough, and ahead the frontal boundary affecting eastern Cuba, and
the central Caribbean mainly N of 13N between 75W and 80W. Strong
winds will pulse near the NW Colombia coast each night. Large
swell will maintain seas above 8 ft in the tropical Atlc waters
through Tue.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated to scattered passing showers are expected across the
island today under the influence of a ridge.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 0600 UTC, a cold front extends from 31N72W across the
central Bahamas and eastern Cuba. Scattered showers and tstms are
along the frontal boundary. A secondary front stretches from
31N73W to the NW Bahamas and western Cuba. The fronts are forecast
to merge today. The merging cold front will slow down and stall
from 31N71W to E Cuba by this evening. A large area of cloudiness
with embedded showers and tstms is over the central Atlantic, and
covers mainly the waters from 20N-28N between 50W-57W. This
convective activity is related to an upper-level low. A surface
trough developed in association with this low since yesterday,
and now extends along 52W from 17N-25N. The pressure gradient
between this trough and strong high pressure to the N is producing
fresh to strong easterly winds across the central Atlantic N of
20N. As previously mentioned, a strong high pressure of 1043 mb
located N of the area near 38N44W dominates the central and
eastern Atlantic Ocean. This system will shift eastward over the
next 24 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
GR
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