[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110557
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1257 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Strong surface high pressure will build across the central United
States by Thu night behind a cold front that will extend from the
Great Lakes SW to eastern Texas to NE Mexico. The front is
forecast to exit the coast of Texas late Thu night, extend from
the Florida Panhandle to the Yucatan Peninsula Fri evening and
move across the Straits of Florida Sat evening. A strong pressure
gradient between the ridge and the front will lead to the
development of strong to gale force northerly winds in the NW Gulf
late Thu night...extending to the SW Gulf during Friday. See
latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia, Africa near
06N10W to 02N20W to 01N30W. The ITCZ continues from 01N30W to
01S50W. Isolated rain showers are from 02S to 09N between 13W and
42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface high pressure over the NW Atlc waters extends a
ridge axis SW across the SE CONUS and the NE Gulf of Mexico while
weak surface low pressure dominates the remainder basin. This
surface pattern is providing with light to moderate ESE flow E of
90W and light to fresh SE flow W of 90W...being the strongest
winds near Veracruz, Mexico. GOES-16 water vapor imagery show
generally deep layer dry air across the basin, which is hindering
convection at this time. The next cold front is forecast to enter
the NW basin late tonight along with strong to gale force winds
that will extend to the SW basin through Friday evening. A
reinforcing cold front will follow and move across Florida Sat.
Strong northerly winds in the wake of the front will start to
diminish early on Monday. See the special features section for
further details on the front and the gale.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Isolated showers cover most of the NW Caribbean waters. These
showers are associated with a surface trough extending across
western Cuba to 17N82W to NE Nicaragua adjacent waters, and
middle to upper level diffluent flow. Hispaniola is underneath the
upper level diffluent flow, which supports cloudiness and isolated
showers across the island. Shallow moisture embedded in the
tradewind flow support similar shower activity for eastern Puerto
Rico, the USVI and adjacent waters. Otherwise, deep layer dry air
support fair weather elsewhere. Moderate to fresh winds are
across the central and eastern waters while light to gentle
variable winds cover the western basin. Showers will continue in
the NW Caribbean through today. The next cold front will enter
the NW Caribbean late Friday night and extend from central Cuba SW
to eastern Honduras Saturday night.

...HISPANIOLA...

A broad area of diffluent flow aloft between an upper level low
centered in the Great Bahama Bank and a ridge covering the
eastern half of the Caribbean support overcast skies and isolated
showers across most of the island. This activity is forecast to
continue through tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered to isolated showers prevail over the SW N Atlc waters
underneath a broad area of diffluent flow aloft. Showers across
the northern Bahamas are also being supported by a surface trough
along the Florida Peninsula. The tail of a cold front enters the
north-central Atlc waters along 30N43W SW to 26N49W supporting
scattered to isolated showers N of 26N between 38W and 47W. Otherwise,
a broad surface ridge anchored by a 1032 mb high near 36N18W
covers the entire Atlc N of 10N. The tail of a cold front will move
further south over the NE Atlc waters by Friday night. The next
cold front will come off NE Florida late Friday night with a
reinforcing cold front following Sat night. The main cold front is
forecast to extend from near 30N71W SW to eastern Cuba by Sunday
night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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