[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110006
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
706 PM EST Wed Jan 10 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Strong surface high pressure will build across the central United
States by tonight behind a cold front that will extend from the
Great Lakes SW to eastern Texas to NE Mexico. The front is
forecast to exit the coast of Texas early Friday, extend from the
Florida Panhandle to the Yucatan Peninsula Fri evening and move
across the Straits of Florida Sat evening. A strong pressure
gradient between the ridge and the front will lead to the
development of strong to gale force northerly winds in the NW Gulf
early on Friday...extending to the SW Gulf during the evening
hours. See latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia, Africa near
05N09W to 04N12W. The ITCZ continues from 04N12W to 0N38W.
Isolated rain showers are from 0N to 10N between 13W and 42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface low pressure dominates the Gulf waters with a remnant
surface trough extending from SE Louisiana to the northern Yucatan
Peninsula adjacent waters. GOES-16 water vapor imagery show
generally deep layer dry air across the basin, which is hindering
convection at this time. The next cold front is forecast to enter
the NW basin Thu night along with strong to gale force winds that
will extend to the SW basin through Friday evening. See the
special features section for further details.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Isolated showers cover most of the NW Caribbean waters. These
showers are associated with a surface trough extending from 21N81W
to Nicaragua adjacent waters and middle to upper level diffluent
flow between the base of a short-wave trough over the Straits of
Florida and ridging aloft to the east. The area of diffluent flow
is broad enough to cover Hispaniola where isolated showers are
occurring. Shallow moisture embedded in the tradewind flow support
similar shower activity for eastern Puerto Rico, the USVI and
adjacent waters. In the SW basin, a surface trough crossing Panama
to NW Colombia support isolated showers S of 12N. Otherwise, deep
layer dry air support fair weather elsewhere. Moderate winds are
across the central and eastern waters with slightly higher winds
in the Gulf of Venezuela. Showers will continue in the NW
Caribbean through Thu. The next cold front will enter the NW
Caribbean Sat night.

...HISPANIOLA...

A broad area of diffluent flow aloft between the base of a short-
wave trough over the Florida Straits and a ridge covering the
eastern Caribbean support overcast skies and isolated showers
across most of the island. This activity is forecast to continue
through Thu evening.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad area of diffluent flow aloft between a short-wave trough
along the Florida Peninsula and a ridge covering the SW N Atlc
waters support scattered moderate rain showers across the central
and northern Bahamas, the Great Bahama Bank and the Straits of
Florida. These showers extends beyond the northern Bahamas to near
32N between 69W and 79W. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge
anchored by a 1030 mb high near 34N20W covers the remainder
central and eastern Atlc. The tail of a cold front will enter the
far northern waters tonight and move further south over the
north-central Atlc waters by Friday night. The next cold front
will come off NE Florida by Sat night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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