[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101205
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST Wed Jan 10 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Strong surface high pressure will build across the central United
States by Thu night behind a cold front that will extend from the
Great Lakes SW to eastern Texas to NE Mexico. The front is
forecast to exit the coast of Texas early Friday, extend from the
Florida Panhandle to the Yucatan Peninsula Fri evening and move
across the Straits of Florida Sat evening. A strong pressure
gradient between the ridge and the front will lead to the
development of strong to gale force W-to-NW winds in the NW Gulf
early on Friday...extending to the SW Gulf during the evening
hours. See latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia, Africa near
05N09W to 02N15W. The ITCZ continues from 02N15W to 02N30W to
0N40W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from
06N southward between 20W and 40W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are from 07N southward between 09W and 13W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1015 mb low pressure center is near 26N87W. One surface trough
extends into the central Gulf of Mexico. A second surface trough
extends toward SE Louisiana. Precipitation: isolated moderate
rainshowers are in the SE corner, from 26N southward from 85W
eastward. Broken to overcast low level clouds are elsewhere from
21N northward from 85W westward.

The next cold front is forecast to enter the NW basin Thu night
along with strong-to-gale force winds, that will extend to the SW
corner of the basin through Friday evening. Please read the
SPECIAL FEATURES section for further details.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is in the westernmost part of the area, from NW
Cuba to eastern Honduras and NE Nicaragua. Scattered strong
rainshowers are just to the south of Cuba, from 19N northward
between 79W and 81W. Other rainshowers are possible from 80W
westward.

Isolated moderare rainshowers are elsewhere, from 77W eastward,
in areas of broken low level clouds. Many of these areas of clouds
are moving northwestward.

A surface trough is along 09N/10N, from NW Colombia westward,
beyond Panama and Costa Rica. Rainshowers are possible from 11N
southward, from 76W westward.

The next cold front will enter the NW Caribbean Sat night.

...HISPANIOLA...

A broad area of diffluent flow aloft between the base of a short-
wave trough in the NW Caribbean and a ridge covering the remainder
basin support overcast skies and isolated showers across most of
the island. This activity is forecast to continue through Thu
evening.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad area of diffluent flow aloft between a short-wave trough
in the Gulf of Mexico and a ridge covering the SW N Atlc waters support
scattered moderate rain showers across the central and northern
Bahamas, the Great Bahama Bank and the Straits of Florida. These
showers extends beyond the northern Bahamas to near 32N between
69W and 79W. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge anchored by a 1030
mb high near 33N34W covers the remainder central and eastern Atlc.
The tail of a cold front will enter the far northern waters today
and move further south over the north-central Atlc waters by
Friday night. The next cold front will come off NE Florida by Sat
night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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