[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
103 AM EST Wed Jan 10 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Strong surface high pressure will build across the central United
States by Thu night behind a cold front that will extend from the
Great Lakes SW to eastern Texas to NE Mexico. The front is
forecast to exit the coast of Texas early Friday, extend from the
Florida Panhandle to the Yucatan Peninsula Fri evening and move
across the Straits of Florida Sat evening. A strong pressure
gradient between the ridge and the front will lead to the
development of strong to gale force northerly winds in the NW Gulf
early on Friday...extending to the SW Gulf during the evening
hours. See latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia, Africa near
05N09W to 02N15W. The ITCZ continues from 02N15W to 02N30W to
0N40W. Scattered moderate rain showers are within 175 nm either
side of the ITCZ and from 0N to 05N between 05W and 19W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface low pressure dominates across the Gulf being anchored
by a 1016 mb low in the SE basin near 25N86W. A middle to upper
level short-wave trough supports this feature from which a
dissipating cold front extends SW towards and across the eastern
Yucatan Peninsula. A pair of surface troughs extends also from the
low, one extending NW to SE Louisiana near 29N89W and another
extending SW to the central Gulf near 23N90W to 24N93W. GOES-16
water vapor imagery show generally deep layer dry air across the
basin, which is hindering convection at this time. Otherwise,
radar imagery show scattered to isolated showers in the Florida
Straits associated with middle to upper level diffluent flow and a
surface trough moving across western Cuba. The next cold front is
forecast to enter the NW basin Thu night along with strong to
gale force winds that will extend to the SW basin through Friday
evening. See the special features section for further details.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered to isolated showers cover most of the NW Caribbean
waters. These showers are associated with a surface trough
extending from 20N78W to 12N82W and middle to upper level
diffluent flow between the base of a short-wave trough over the
Gulf of Mexico and ridging aloft to the east. The area of
diffluent flow is broad enough to cover Hispaniola where isolated
showers are occurring. Shallow moisture embedded in the tradewind
flow support similar shower activity for eastern Puerto Rico, the
USVI and adjacent waters. In the SW basin, a surface trough
crossing Panama to NW Colombia support isolated showers S of 12N.
Otherwise, deep layer dry air support fair weather elsewhere.
Moderate winds are across the central and eastern waters with
slightly higher winds in the Gulf of Venezuela. Showers will
continue in the NW Caribbean through Thu. The next cold front will
enter the NW Caribbean Sat night.

...HISPANIOLA...

A broad area of diffluent flow aloft between the base of a short-
wave trough in the NW Caribbean and a ridge covering the remainder
basin support overcast skies and isolated showers across most of
the island. This activity is forecast to continue through Thu
evening.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad area of diffluent flow aloft between a short-wave trough
in the Gulf of Mexico and a ridge covering the SW N Atlc waters support
scattered moderate rain showers across the central and northern
Bahamas, the Great Bahama Bank and the Straits of Florida. These
showers extends beyond the northern Bahamas to near 32N between
69W and 79W. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge anchored by a 1030
mb high near 33N34W covers the remainder central and eastern Atlc.
The tail of a cold front will enter the far northern waters today
and move further south over the north-central Atlc waters by
Friday night. The next cold front will come off NE Florida by Sat
night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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