[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042340
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
640 PM EST Thu Jan 4 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A cold front extends into the discussion area from the hurricane-
force 950 mb low centered off the mid-Atlc coast near 39N70W. The
cold front reaches from 32N63W S-SW to 22N72W through the
Windward Passage. Near gale to gale force W-NW winds are
occurring generally N of 29N between 64W-75W, diminishing below
gale force by later this evening as the low pressure area moves
northward towards the eastern tip of Maine and western Nova
Scotia. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

A tight pressure gradient and reinforcing cold air filtering in
across the SW Caribbean Sea continues to support near gale to gale
force NW-N winds generally S of 13N W of 80W. The wind field is
forecast diminish below gale force later this evening. See the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 05N9W to
05N15W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
05N15W to 06N21W to the Equator near 40W. Only isolated convection
is occurring, mainly N of the axis.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Surface ridging prevails across central Arkansas. Moderate to
fresh northerly winds are expected to persist through Friday
night, locally fresh to strong S of 20N and W of 92W. Thereafter,
the ridging will weaken slightly and slide eastward across the SE
CONUS shifting winds E-NE Saturday and E-SE on Sunday as the next
area of low pressure develops across the Texas and Oklahoma
panhandles. The associated cold front is expected to emerge off
the Texas and Louisiana coasts late Sunday night into Monday
morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery
over the western North Atlc and NW Caribbean with axis extending
from 32N67W to a base over eastern Cuba. This troughing has
lifted northward from the NW Caribbean allowing for a surface cold
front to stall from the Windward Passage to across Jamaica to
central Panama. A 1010 mb low is centered at the southern extent
of the front with a pre-frontal trough extending NE from the low
to SW Haiti near 18N74W. The front along with the low and
troughing are providing focus for scattered showers and tstms
occurring generally within 360 nm E of the front, and within 180
nm in the NW semicircle of the low. Early data suggested that near
gale to gale force NW-N winds were persisting from 10N to 13N W of
the front, however, they will diminish below gale force later this
evening. Moderate to locally strong northerly winds prevail
elsewhere W of the front, with moderate to fresh trades noted
across the remainder of the basin E of the surface trough. The
stationary front will linger through Friday, gradually dissipating
Saturday into Sunday. Fresh to strong winds are expected W of the
boundary through the upcoming weekend.

...HISPANIOLA...
Scattered showers and isolated tstms are expected through Friday
across Hispaniola as a cold front is analyzed just to the NW of
northern Haiti. The front is expected to stall across the island
Friday with NE winds increasing through the Windward Passage and
northern coastal exposures, persisting through Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Outside of the Special Features cold front across the SW North
Atlc, the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under the
influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1034 mb high centered
S-SW of the Azores near 33N37W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Lewitsky
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