[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041626
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1126 AM EST Thu Jan 4 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A cold front extends into the discussion area from the hurricane-
force 957 mb low centered off the mid-Atlc coast near 37N72W. The
cold front reaches from 32N66W S-SW to 22N72W through the
Windward Passage and into the western Caribbean Sea. Near gale to
gale force W-NW winds are occurring generally N of 29N between
65W-77W. As the low pressure area moves northward through tonight
towards the eastern tip of Maine and western Nova Scotia...strong
to near gale force winds will continue across the discussion area
waters through early Friday morning. See the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

A strengthened pressure gradient and reinforcing cold air
filtering in across the SW Caribbean Sea continues to support
near gale to gale force N-NW winds generally S of 13N W of 81W.
The wind field is forecast diminish below gale force by Thursday
evening. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the Prime Meridian near 03N to
03N07W to 05N12W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends
from 05N11W to 07N20W to the Equator near 38W. Isolated moderate
convection is from the Equator to 04N between 02W-09W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 02N-08N between 15W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Surface ridging prevails across the Gulf this afternoon anchored
by a 1031 mb high centered across eastern Texas near 31N97W and a
1030 mb high centered across NE Mexico near 25N99W. Moderate to
fresh northerly winds are expected to persist through Friday
night. Thereafter...the ridging will weaken slightly and slide
eastward across the SE CONUS shifting winds E-NE Saturday and E-SE
on Sunday as the next area of low pressure develops across the
Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. The associated cold front is
expected to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts late Sunday
night into Monday morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery
over the western North Atlc and NW Caribbean with axis extending
from 32N77W to a base over the Gulf of Honduras near 16N86W. The
troughing supports a cold front analyzed from the Windward Passage
SW across eastern Jamaica to the coast of central Panama near
10N80W. A 1009 mb low is centered at the southern extent of the
front with a pre-frontal trough extending NE from the low to
16N75W. The front along with the low and troughing are providing
focus for scattered showers and tstms occurring generally within
72W-83W in the vicinity of surface trough axis and low. An earlier
ASCAT pass indicated the Special Features near gale to gale force
N-NW winds S of 15N W of the cold front. Fresh to strong northerly
winds prevail W of the front elsewhere with moderate to fresh
trades noted across the remainder of the basin E of the surface
trough. The cold front will become stationary by Thursday night
into Friday across the Windward Passage region and Hispaniola
with fresh to strong winds expected W of the boundary through the
upcoming weekend.

...HISPANIOLA...
Scattered showers and isolated tstms are expected through Friday
across Hispaniola as a cold front is analyzed to the west across
the Windward Passage and eastern Jamaica. The front is expected to
stall across the island Friday with NE increasing through the
Windward Passage and northern coast exposures...persisting
through Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Outside of the Special Features cold front across the SW North
Atlc...the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under the
influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1035 mb high centered
S-SW of the Azores near 33N34W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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