[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250606
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Wed Oct 25 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0300 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is E of the Lesser Antilles with axis extending
from 18N56W to 06N57W. Interaction of the wave with an elongated
upper level trough across the E Caribbean with base extending into
S America is maintaining the wave nearly stationary. Satellite
derived data show the wave is in a region of strong vertical wind
shear. However, abundant low to middle level moisture and upper
level diffluent between the trough and a broad ridge over the
central Atlc support scattered moderate convection and isolated tstms
from 10N-19N between 49W-61W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N16W to
10N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
10N20W to 08N30W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection and
isolated tstms are from 03N-15N between 30W-49W and from 05N-10N E
of 19W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A vigorous middle to upper level trough is over the Great Lakes
and Mississippi River valley with a broad base dipping southward
to near 27N over the northern Gulf. The deep layered trough
supports a cold front extending from central Florida near 26N81W
SW to the Yucatan peninsula near 21N87W to western Guatemala. Scattered
showers and isolated tstms are occurring within 120 nm E of the
front as it continues to move eastward while isolated showers are
within 210 nm W of the boundary. Fresh to strong northerly winds
associated with the passage of the front are occurring mainly W of
90W and are expected to gradually decrease in areal coverage and
be confined to the Bay of Campeche by Wednesday night. Otherwise,
surface high pressure continues to build across the Gulf today
into Thursday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad upper level ridge over the western Caribbean continues to
provide an overall diffluent environment aloft. Underneath this
diffluent flow aloft, a 1006 mb low is centered along the
coastline of Nicaragua near 13N83W, which is supporting numerous
heavy showers and scattered tstms across Nicaragua and scattered
heavy showers and tstms elsewhere in the W Caribbean W of 80W.
The convection extends farther SE and covers the region S of 13N
between 73W and 80W. A deep layered trough covers the remainder
basin with water vapor imagery showing strong subsidence, which
is supporting fair weather. In the farther E Caribbean, proximity
of a tropical wave with axis near 56W support scattered to
isolated showers across the Windward Islands. A cold front
currently across the SE Gulf of Mexico will move into the NW
Caribbean today shifting winds northerly and increasing them into
fresh to strong breeze levels through Thursday. Otherwise,
moderate to fresh trades prevail across the basin.

...HISPANIOLA...

Dry air aloft within northerly flow will support fair weather
across the island through today and Thursday. Moderate trades are
expected to persist.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle to upper level trough continues to progress eastward out
of the Great Lakes and Mississippi River valley region towards the
eastern US seaboard this morning. The trough supports a cold
front extending from 31N77W to central Florida near Cape
Canaveral. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring
ahead of the front within 210 nm. The remainder of the SW North
Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1029
mb high centered near 38N58W. Within the southern periphery of
this ridge, a stationary front extends from 30N33W to 26N41W where
it starts to dissipate. A surface trough also extends from
26N59W to 21N63W. Scattered showers and tstms are occuring from
22N-29N between 51W-58W. A weak surface ridge is elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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